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There has been growing interest on forecasting mortality. In this article, we propose a novel dynamic Bayesian approach for modeling and forecasting the age-at-death distribution, focusing on a three-components mixture of a Dirac mass, a…
Analysis of the urban population fraction data for sixteen populous countries over the last fifty years reveals a universal increase in urbanization, exhibiting four qualitatively distinct temporal patterns: (i) continuously accelerating…
This study presents a novel demographics informed deep learning framework designed to forecast urban spatial transformations by jointly modeling geographic satellite imagery, socio-demographics, and travel behavior dynamics. The proposed…
In recent years modelling crowd and evacuation dynamics has become very important, with increasing huge numbers of people gathering around the world for many reasons and events. The fact that our global population grows dramatically every…
Relevant events in a three state illness-death model (IDM) of a chronic disease are the diagnosis of the disease and death with or without the disease. In this article a simulation framework for populations moving in the IDM is presented.…
This work introduces a Bayesian smoothing approach for the joint graduation of mortality rates across multiple populations. In particular, dynamical linear models are used to induce smoothness across ages through structured dependence,…
Large Language Models (LLMs) display remarkable capabilities to understand or even produce political discourse but have been found to consistently exhibit a progressive left-leaning bias. At the same time, so-called persona or identity…
This article presents a comprehensive study of the continuous McKendrick model, which serves as a foundational framework in population dynamics and epidemiology. The model is formulated through partial differential equations that describe…
We propose a simple model to describe the dynamics of religious affiliation. For such purpose, we built a compartmental model with three distinct subpopulations, namely religious committed individuals, religious noncommitted individuals and…
Historically, matrix projection models (MPMs) have been employed to study population dynamics with regard to size, age or structure. To work with continuous traits, in the past decade, integral projection models (IPMs) have been proposed.…
In this paper, we study a finite population undergoing discrete, nonoverlapping generations, that is structured into $D$ demes, each containing $N$ individuals of two possible types, $A$ and $B$, whose viability coefficients, $s_A$ and…
Understanding how human health changes over time, and why responses to interventions vary between individuals, remains a central challenge in medicine. Here we present HealthFormer, a decoder-only transformer that models the human…
International migration is now a significant driver of population change across Europe but the methods available to estimate its true impact upon sub-national areas remain inconsistent, constrained by inadequate systems of measurement and…
Population decline is projected to become widespread in Europe, with the continental population set to reverse its longstanding trajectory of growth within the next five years. This represents unfamiliar demographic territory. Despite this,…
This paper examines the spatial distribution of income in Ireland. Median gross household disposable income data from the CSO, available at the Electoral Division (ED) level, is used to explore the spatial variability in income. Geary's C…
We estimate cumulative CO2 emissions during the period 2000 to 2050 from developed and developing countries based on the empirical relationship between CO2 per capita emissions (due to fossil fuel combustion and cement production) and…
A multilevel functional data method is adapted for forecasting age-specific mortality for two or more populations in developed countries with high-quality vital registration systems. It uses multilevel functional principal component…
Populations exhibiting partial migration consist of two groups of individuals: Those that mi- grate between habitats, and those that remain fixed in a single habitat. We propose several discrete-time population models to investigate the…
Migration the main process shaping patterns of human settlement within and between countries. It is widely acknowledged to be integral to the process of human development as it plays a significant role in enhancing educational outcomes. At…
Social dynamics is concerned primarily with interactions among individuals and the resulting group behaviors, modeling the temporal evolution of social systems via the interactions of individuals within these systems. In particular, the…