Related papers: Conditional splitting probabilities for hidden-sta…
In this paper, a study of random times on filtered probability spaces is undertaken. The main message is that, as long as distributional properties of optional processes up to the random time are involved, there is no loss of generality in…
Many probabilistic inference problems such as stochastic filtering or the computation of rare event probabilities require model analysis under initial and terminal constraints. We propose a solution to this bridging problem for the widely…
The objective of this paper is to study the filtering problem for a system of partially observable processes $(X, Y)$, where $X$ is a non-Markovian pure-jump process representing the signal and $Y$ is a general jump-diffusion which provides…
We analyze here different types of fractional differential equations, under the assumption that their fractional order $\nu \in (0,1] $ is random\ with probability density $n(\nu).$ We start by considering the fractional extension of the…
We investigate piecewise-linear stochastic models as with regards to the probability distribution of functionals of the stochastic processes, a question which occurs frequently in large deviation theory. The functionals that we are looking…
We consider the problem of leakage or effusion of an ensemble of independent stochastic processes from a region where they are initially randomly distributed. The case of Brownian motion, initially confined to the left half line with…
We consider a generic class of stochastic particle-based models whose state at an instant in time is described by a set of continuous degrees of freedom (e.g. positions), and the length of this set changes stochastically in time due to…
We consider the task of filtering a dynamic parameter evolving as a diffusion process, given data collected at discrete times from a likelihood which is conjugate to the marginal law of the diffusion, when a generic dual process on a…
The {\alpha}-stable L\'evy process, commonly used to describe L\'evy flight, is characterized by discontinuous jumps and is widely used to model anomalous transport phenomena. In this study, we investigate the associated exit problem and…
Be $X_t$ a random process starting at $x \in [0,1]$ with absorbing boundary conditions at both ends of the interval. Denote $P_1(x)$ the probability to first exit at the upper boundary. For Brownian motion, $P_1(x)=x$, equivalent to…
The paper deals with the asymptotic behavior of the bridge of a Gaussian process conditioned to stay in $n$ fixed points at $n$ fixed past instants. In particular, functional large deviation results are stated for small time. Several…
We investigate the splitting probability of a monitored continuous-time quantum walk with two targets and show that, in stark contrast to a classical random walk, it exhibits a nonanalytic, phase-transition-like behavior controlled by the…
For a network of discrete states with a periodically driven Markovian dynamics, we develop an inference scheme for an external observer who has access to some transitions. Based on waiting-time distributions between these transitions, the…
Stochastic differential equations provide a powerful tool for modelling dynamic phenomena affected by random noise. In case of repeated observations of time series for several experimental units, it is often the case that some of the…
The method of potential solutions of Fokker-Planck equations is used to develop a transport equation for the joint probability of N stochastic variables with Lochner's generalized Dirichlet distribution (R.H. Lochner, A Generalized…
We derive expressions for the first three moments of the decision time (DT) distribution produced via first threshold crossings by sample paths of a drift-diffusion equation. The "pure" and "extended" diffusion processes are widely used to…
In this paper we discuss a closed-form approximation of the likelihood functions of an arbitrary diffusion process. The approximation is based on an exponential ansatz of the transition probability for a finite time step $\Delta t$, and a…
The exit time probability, which gives the likelihood that an initial condition leaves a prescribed region of the phase space of a dynamical system at, or before, a given time, is arguably one of the most natural and important transport…
A stochastic hybrid system, also known as a switching diffusion, is a continuous-time Markov process with state space consisting of discrete and continuous parts. We consider parametric estimation of theQmatrix for the discrete state…
In this paper we use splitting technique to estimate the probability of hitting a rare but critical set by the continuous component of a switching diffusion. Instead of following classical approach we use Wonham filter to achieve multiple…