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With the widespread application of Large Language Models (LLMs) to various domains, concerns regarding the trustworthiness of LLMs in safety-critical scenarios have been raised, due to their unpredictable tendency to hallucinate and…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-11-04 Xin Qiu , Risto Miikkulainen

For any black-box model, conformal prediction (CP) returns prediction sets guaranteed to include the true label with high adjustable probability. Robust CP (RCP) extends the guarantee to the worst case noise up to a pre-defined magnitude.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-12-09 Soroush H. Zargarbashi , Mohammad Sadegh Akhondzadeh , Aleksandar Bojchevski

Step-by-step decision planning with large language models (LLMs) is gaining attention in AI agent development. This paper focuses on decision planning with uncertainty estimation to address the hallucination problem in language models.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-02-02 Yao-Hung Hubert Tsai , Walter Talbott , Jian Zhang

Recent advances in Large Reasoning Models (LRMs) have significantly improved long-chain reasoning capabilities over Large Language Models (LLMs). However, LRMs often produce unnecessarily lengthy outputs even for simple queries, leading to…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-05-27 Jiayuan Su , Fulin Lin , Zhaopeng Feng , Han Zheng , Teng Wang , Zhenyu Xiao , Xinlong Zhao , Zuozhu Liu , Lu Cheng , Hongwei Wang

Large language models (LLMs) excel in many tasks but struggle to accurately quantify uncertainty in their generated responses. This limitation makes it challenging to detect misinformation and ensure reliable decision-making. Existing…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-06-04 Boxuan Zhang , Ruqi Zhang

Reliable uncertainty quantification (UQ) is essential for ensuring trustworthy downstream use of large language models, especially when they are deployed in decision-support and other knowledge-intensive applications. Model certainty can be…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-11-04 Autumn Toney-Wails , Ryan Wails

Large Language Models (LLMs) have been transformative across many domains. However, hallucination, i.e., confidently outputting incorrect information, remains one of the leading challenges for LLMs. This raises the question of how to…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2026-03-19 Toghrul Abbasli , Kentaroh Toyoda , Yuan Wang , Leon Witt , Muhammad Asif Ali , Yukai Miao , Dan Li , Qingsong Wei

In the deployment of large language models (LLMs), accurate confidence estimation is critical for assessing the credibility of model predictions. However, existing methods often fail to overcome the issue of overconfidence on incorrect…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-02-20 Pei Wang , Yejie Wang , Muxi Diao , Keqing He , Guanting Dong , Weiran Xu

Despite recent progress in systematic evaluation frameworks, benchmarking the uncertainty of large language models (LLMs) remains a highly challenging task. Existing methods for benchmarking the uncertainty of LLMs face three key…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-06-05 Xunzhi Wang , Zhuowei Zhang , Gaonan Chen , Qiongyu Li , Bitong Luo , Zhixin Han , Haotian Wang , Zhiyu li , Hang Gao , Mengting Hu

Despite the outstanding performance of large language models (LLMs) across various NLP tasks, hallucinations in LLMs--where LLMs generate inaccurate responses--remains as a critical problem as it can be directly connected to a crisis of…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-07-22 Minsuh Joo , Hyunsoo Cho

In this work, we aim at augmenting the decisions output by quantum models with "error bars" that provide finite-sample coverage guarantees. Quantum models implement implicit probabilistic predictors that produce multiple random decisions…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2023-10-24 Sangwoo Park , Osvaldo Simeone

Given that machine learning algorithms are increasingly being deployed to aid in high stakes decision-making, uncertainty quantification methods that wrap around these black box models such as conformal prediction have received much…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-02-09 Kayla E. Scharfstein , Arun Kumar Kuchibhotla

Large language models (LLMs) have revolutionized the field of natural language processing with their impressive reasoning and question-answering capabilities. However, these models are sometimes prone to generating credible-sounding but…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2026-04-21 Ranganath Krishnan , Piyush Khanna , Omesh Tickoo

Large Language Models (LLMs) frequently hallucinate, limiting their reliability in critical applications. Conformal Prediction (CP) addresses this by calibrating error rates on held-out data to provide statistically valid confidence…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-23 Nathan Hittesdorf , Marco Salzetta , Lu Cheng

Large Language Models (LLMs) have demonstrated exceptional capabilities, yet selecting the most reliable response from multiple LLMs remains a challenge, particularly in resource-constrained settings. Existing approaches often depend on…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-10-06 Aakriti Agrawal , Rohith Aralikatti , Anirudh Satheesh , Souradip Chakraborty , Amrit Singh Bedi , Furong Huang

Surrogate models (including deep neural networks and other machine learning algorithms in supervised learning) are capable of approximating arbitrarily complex, high-dimensional input-output problems in science and engineering, but require…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-12-17 Miguel Sánchez-Domínguez , Lucas Lacasa , Javier de Vicente , Gonzalo Rubio , Eusebio Valero

Uncertainty quantification is essential for deploying machine learning models in high-stakes domains such as scientific discovery and healthcare. Conformal Prediction (CP) provides finite-sample coverage guarantees under exchangeability, an…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-30 Siddhartha Laghuvarapu , Rohan Deb , Jimeng Sun

Prompt optimization algorithms for Large Language Models (LLMs) excel in multi-step reasoning but still lack effective uncertainty estimation. This paper introduces a benchmark dataset to evaluate uncertainty metrics, focusing on Answer,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-12-30 Pei-Fu Guo , Yun-Da Tsai , Shou-De Lin

The rapid proliferation of large language models and natural language processing (NLP) applications creates a crucial need for uncertainty quantification to mitigate risks such as hallucinations and to enhance decision-making reliability in…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-05-06 Margarida M. Campos , António Farinhas , Chrysoula Zerva , Mário A. T. Figueiredo , André F. T. Martins

In the field of NLP, Large Language Models (LLMs) have markedly enhanced performance across a variety of tasks. However, the comprehensive evaluation of LLMs remains an inevitable challenge for the community. Recently, the adoption of…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-12-09 Haochun Wang , Sendong Zhao , Zewen Qiang , Nuwa Xi , Bing Qin , Ting Liu
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