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We introduce a novel approach for calibrating uncertainty quantification (UQ) tailored for multi-modal large language models (LLMs). Existing state-of-the-art UQ methods rely on consistency among multiple responses generated by the LLM on…

Black-box large language models (LLMs) are increasingly deployed in various environments, making it essential for these models to effectively convey their confidence and uncertainty, especially in high-stakes settings. However, these models…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-09-06 Jeremy Qin , Bang Liu , Quoc Dinh Nguyen

As machine learning (ML) models are increasingly deployed in high-stakes domains, trustworthy uncertainty quantification (UQ) is critical for ensuring the safety and reliability of these models. Traditional UQ methods rely on specifying a…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-05-14 Abhineet Agarwal , Michael Xiao , Rebecca Barter , Omer Ronen , Boyu Fan , Bin Yu

Large language models (LLMs) excel on multiple-choice clinical diagnosis benchmarks, yet it is unclear how much of this performance reflects underlying probabilistic reasoning. We study this through questions from MedQA, where the task is…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-12-16 Furong Jia , Yuan Pu , Finn Guo , Monica Agrawal

The rise of large language models (LLMs) and their tight integration into our daily life make it essential to dedicate efforts towards their trustworthiness. Uncertainty quantification for LLMs can establish more human trust into their…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2026-05-06 Daniel Yang , Yao-Hung Hubert Tsai , Makoto Yamada

Large Language Models (LLMs) have demonstrated remarkable capabilities across various tasks due to large training datasets and powerful transformer architecture. However, the reliability of responses from LLMs remains a question.…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-02-26 Tiejin Chen , Xiaoou Liu , Longchao Da , Jia Chen , Vagelis Papalexakis , Hua Wei

Accurate uncertainty quantification (UQ) in Large Language Models (LLMs) is critical for trustworthy deployment. While real-world language is inherently ambiguous, reflecting aleatoric uncertainty, existing UQ methods are typically…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-01-30 Tim Tomov , Dominik Fuchsgruber , Tom Wollschläger , Stephan Günnemann

This paper introduces a novel task to assess the faithfulness of large language models (LLMs) using local perturbations and self-explanations. Many LLMs often require additional context to answer certain questions correctly. For this…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-09-24 Christos Fragkathoulas , Odysseas S. Chlapanis

Conformal Prediction (CP) is a distribution-free method for constructing prediction sets with marginal finite-sample coverage guarantees, making it a suitable framework for reliable uncertainty quantification in safety-critical object…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2026-05-11 Christopher Ries , Moussa Kassem Sbeyti , Nicolas Bianco , Nadja Klein

Large language models (LLMs) inherently operate over a large generation space, yet conventional usage typically reports the most likely generation (MLG) as a point prediction, which underestimates the model's capability: although the…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2026-03-25 Ye Li , Anqi Hu , Yuanchang Ye , Shiyan Tong , Zhiyuan Wang , Bo Fu

Large language models (LLMs) show remarkable promise for democratizing automated reasoning by generating formal specifications. However, a fundamental tension exists: LLMs are probabilistic, while formal verification demands deterministic…

The accurate trust assessment of multimodal large language models (MLLMs) generated predictions, which can enable selective prediction and improve user confidence, is challenging due to the diverse multi-modal input paradigms. We propose…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2026-02-02 Debarpan Bhattacharya , Apoorva Kulkarni , Sriram Ganapathy

Given a black-box AI system and a task, at what confidence level can a practitioner trust the system's output? We answer with a reliability level -- a single number per system-task pair, derived from self-consistency sampling and conformal…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-26 Charafeddine Mouzouni

In this paper, we focus on the problem of conformal prediction with conditional guarantees. Prior work has shown that it is impossible to construct nontrivial prediction sets with full conditional coverage guarantees. A wealth of research…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-04-29 Shayan Kiyani , George Pappas , Hamed Hassani

Uncertainty estimation is crucial for the reliability of safety-critical human and artificial intelligence (AI) interaction systems, particularly in the domain of healthcare engineering. However, a robust and general uncertainty measure for…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-11-19 Zhiyuan Wang , Jinhao Duan , Chenxi Yuan , Qingyu Chen , Tianlong Chen , Yue Zhang , Ren Wang , Xiaoshuang Shi , Kaidi Xu

Large Language Models (LLMs) tend to be unreliable in the factuality of their answers. To address this problem, NLP researchers have proposed a range of techniques to estimate LLM's confidence over facts. However, due to the lack of a…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-11-28 Matéo Mahaut , Laura Aina , Paula Czarnowska , Momchil Hardalov , Thomas Müller , Lluís Màrquez

Consistency-based methods have emerged as an effective approach to uncertainty quantification (UQ) in large language models. These methods typically rely on several generations obtained via multinomial sampling, measuring their agreement…

Advances in the general capabilities of large language models (LLMs) have led to their use for information retrieval, and as components in automated decision systems. A faithful representation of probabilistic reasoning in these models may…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-04-21 Gabriel Freedman , Francesca Toni

In recent years, large-scale language models (LLMs) have gained attention for their impressive text generation capabilities. However, these models often face the challenge of "hallucination," which undermines their reliability. In this…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2023-10-10 Yuchen Yang , Houqiang Li , Yanfeng Wang , Yu Wang

The goal of selective prediction is to allow an a model to abstain when it may not be able to deliver a reliable prediction, which is important in safety-critical contexts. Existing approaches to selective prediction typically require…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2024-04-17 Zaid Khan , Yun Fu
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