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Leveraging the power of a graph neural network (GNN) with message passing, we present a Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS) method to solve stochastic orienteering problems with chance constraints. While adhering to an assigned travel budget the…

Robotics · Computer Science 2025-08-19 Marcos Abel Zuzuárregui , Stefano Carpin

Taking into account future risk is essential for an autonomously operating robot to find online not only the best but also a safe action to execute. In this paper, we build upon the recently introduced formulation of probabilistic…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2024-11-12 Andrey Zhitnikov , Vadim Indelman

Computation of extreme quantiles and tail-based risk measures using standard Monte Carlo simulation can be inefficient. A method to speed up computations is provided by importance sampling. We show that importance sampling algorithms,…

Probability · Mathematics 2009-09-21 Henrik Hult , Jens Svensson

This work investigates the Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS) method combined with dedicated heuristics for solving the Weighted Vertex Coloring Problem. In addition to the basic MCTS algorithm, we study several MCTS variants where the…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-03-05 Cyril Grelier , Olivier Goudet , Jin-Kao Hao

Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR) is a widely used risk-sensitive objective for learning under rare but high-impact losses, yet its statistical behavior under heavy-tailed data remains poorly understood. Unlike expectation-based risk, CVaR…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-02-23 Dinesh Karthik Mulumudi , Piyushi Manupriya , Gholamali Aminian , Anant Raj

This paper develops an efficient Monte Carlo method to estimate the tail probabilities of the ratio of the largest eigenvalue to the trace of the Wishart matrix, which plays an important role in multivariate data analysis. The estimator is…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-03-28 Yinqiu He , Gongjun Xu

This work presents the first study of using the popular Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS) method combined with dedicated heuristics for solving the Weighted Vertex Coloring Problem. Starting with the basic MCTS algorithm, we gradually…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-04-08 Cyril Grelier , Olivier Goudet , Jin-Kao Hao

Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS) has shown its strength for a lot of deterministic and stochastic examples, but literature lacks reports of applications to real world industrial processes. Common reasons for this are that there is no…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2021-08-05 Dorina Weichert , Felix Horchler , Alexander Kister , Marcus Trost , Johannes Hartung , Stefan Risse

Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS) is an effective test-time compute scaling (TTCS) method for improving the reasoning performance of large language models, but its highly variable execution time leads to severe long-tail latency in practice.…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2026-04-02 Hongbeen Kim , Juhyun Lee , Sanghyeon Lee , Kwanghoon Choi , Jaehyuk Huh

In the world of embedded systems, optimizing actions with the uncertain costs of multiple resources is a complex challenge. Existing methods include plan building based on Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS), an approach that thrives in multiple…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2024-07-18 Franco Cordeiro , Samuel Tardieu , Laurent Pautet

To comply with increasingly stringent international standards in risk management and regulation, several approaches have been developed in the literature for forecasting tail-risk measures such as Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2026-03-02 Alessandra Amendola , Vincenzo Candila , Antonio Naimoli , Giuseppe Storti

Monte Carlo tree search (MCTS) is a popular choice for solving sequential anytime problems. However, it depends on a numeric feedback signal, which can be difficult to define. Real-time MCTS is a variant which may only rarely encounter…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2018-09-20 Tobias Joppen , Christian Wirth , Johannes Fürnkranz

Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS) is a powerful algorithm for solving complex decision-making problems. This paper presents an optimized MCTS implementation applied to the FrozenLake environment, a classic reinforcement learning task…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2024-09-26 Esteban Aldana Guerra

This paper uses simulation-based portfolio optimization to mitigate the left tail risk of the portfolio. The contribution is twofold. (i) We propose the Markov regime-switching GARCH model with multivariate normal tempered stable innovation…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2023-02-03 Cheng Peng , Young Shin Kim , Stefan Mittnik

The key to Black-Box Optimization is to efficiently search through input regions with potentially widely-varying numerical properties, to achieve low-regret descent and fast progress toward the optima. Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS) methods…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-11-03 Yaoguang Zhai , Sicun Gao

When estimating the risk of a financial position with empirical data or Monte Carlo simulations via a tail-dependent law invariant risk measure such as the Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR), it is important to ensure the robustness of the…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2020-06-30 Wei Wang , Huifu Xu , Tiejun Ma

Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS), most famously used in game-play artificial intelligence (e.g., the game of Go), is a well-known strategy for constructing approximate solutions to sequential decision problems. Its primary innovation is the…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2017-04-21 Daniel R. Jiang , Lina Al-Kanj , Warren B. Powell

Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS) is a best-first sampling method employed in the search for optimal decisions. The effectiveness of MCTS relies on the construction of its statistical tree, with the selection policy playing a crucial role. A…

Neural and Evolutionary Computing · Computer Science 2023-11-27 Edgar Galvan , Fred Valdez Ameneyro

The integration of autonomous vehicles into urban and highway environments necessitates the development of robust and adaptable behavior planning systems. This study presents an innovative approach to address this challenge by utilizing a…

Robotics · Computer Science 2023-10-19 Qianfeng Wen , Zhongyi Gong , Lifeng Zhou , Zhongshun Zhang

Monte-Carlo Tree Search (MCTS) is a widely-used strategy for online planning that combines Monte-Carlo sampling with forward tree search. Its success relies on the Upper Confidence bound for Trees (UCT) algorithm, an extension of the UCB…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2024-06-05 Tuan Dam , Odalric-Ambrym Maillard , Emilie Kaufmann