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This paper introduces a novel backup strategy for Monte-Carlo Tree Search (MCTS) designed for highly stochastic and partially observable Markov decision processes. We adopt a probabilistic approach, modeling both value and action-value…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2023-09-20 Tuan Dam , Pascal Stenger , Lukas Schneider , Joni Pajarinen , Carlo D'Eramo , Odalric-Ambrym Maillard

We present a new Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS) algorithm to solve the stochastic orienteering problem with chance constraints, i.e., a version of the problem where travel costs are random, and one is assigned a bound on the tolerable…

Robotics · Computer Science 2024-09-06 Stefano Carpin

Conditional value-at-risk (CVaR) and value-at-risk (VaR) are popular tail-risk measures in finance and insurance industries as well as in highly reliable, safety-critical uncertain environments where often the underlying probability…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-06-23 Shubhada Agrawal , Wouter M. Koolen , Sandeep Juneja

Value at risk (VaR) and expected shortfall (ES) are common high quantile-based risk measures adopted in financial regulations and risk management. In this paper, we propose a tail risk measure based on the most probable maximum size of risk…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2025-06-17 Kan Chen , Tuoyuan Cheng

We present Doubly Robust Monte Carlo Tree Search (DR-MCTS), a novel algorithm that integrates Doubly Robust (DR) off-policy estimation into Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS) to enhance sample efficiency and decision quality in complex…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-02-05 Manqing Liu , Andrew L. Beam

Ensuring the safety of neural networks under input uncertainty is a fundamental challenge in safety-critical applications. This paper builds on and expands Fazlyab's quadratic-constraint (QC) and semidefinite-programming (SDP) framework for…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-09-23 Masako Kishida

In this work, we consider the popular tree-based search strategy within the framework of reinforcement learning, the Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS), in the context of infinite-horizon discounted cost Markov Decision Process (MDP). While…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-01-14 Devavrat Shah , Qiaomin Xie , Zhi Xu

Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS) is an immensely popular search-based framework used for decision making. It is traditionally applied to domains where a perfect simulation model of the environment is available. We study and improve MCTS in…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2024-05-24 Farnaz Kohankhaki , Kiarash Aghakasiri , Hongming Zhang , Ting-Han Wei , Chao Gao , Martin Müller

This paper introduces COR-MCTS (Conservation of Resources - Monte Carlo Tree Search), a novel tactical decision-making approach for automated driving focusing on maneuver planning over extended horizons. Traditional decision-making…

Robotics · Computer Science 2025-04-23 Karim Essalmi , Fernando Garrido , Fawzi Nashashibi

The Constrained Markov Decision Process (CMDP) formulation allows to solve safety-critical decision making tasks that are subject to constraints. While CMDPs have been extensively studied in the Reinforcement Learning literature, little…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-10-29 Dinesh Parthasarathy , Georgios Kontes , Axel Plinge , Christopher Mutschler

We propose a provably correct Monte Carlo tree search (MCTS) algorithm for solving risk-aware Markov decision processes (MDPs) with entropic risk measure (ERM) objectives. We provide a non-asymptotic analysis of our proposed algorithm,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-06 Pedro P. Santos , Jacopo Silvestrin , Alberto Sardinha , Francisco S. Melo

We present an extension of Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS) that strongly increases its efficiency for trees with asymmetry and/or loops. Asymmetric termination of search trees introduces a type of uncertainty for which the standard upper…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-05-24 Thomas M. Moerland , Joost Broekens , Aske Plaat , Catholijn M. Jonker

Excellent tail performance is crucial for modern machine learning tasks, such as algorithmic fairness, class imbalance, and risk-sensitive decision making, as it ensures the effective handling of challenging samples within a dataset. Tail…

Information Retrieval · Computer Science 2024-02-29 Riku Togashi , Tatsushi Oka , Naoto Ohsaka , Tetsuro Morimura

Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS) has emerged as a powerful tool for decision-making in robotics, enabling efficient exploration of large search spaces. However, traditional MCTS methods struggle in environments characterized by high…

Robotics · Computer Science 2025-03-10 Xibai Wang

Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS) has profoundly influenced reinforcement learning (RL) by integrating planning and learning in tasks requiring long-horizon reasoning, exemplified by the AlphaZero family of algorithms. Central to MCTS is the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-28 Maximilian Weichart

Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS) efficiently balances exploration and exploitation in tree search based on count-derived uncertainty. However, these local visit counts ignore a second type of uncertainty induced by the size of the subtree…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2020-05-21 Thomas M Moerland , Joost Broekens , Aske Plaat , Catholijn M Jonker

Monte-Carlo Tree Search (MCTS) is a class of methods for solving complex decision-making problems through the synergy of Monte-Carlo planning and Reinforcement Learning (RL). The highly combinatorial nature of the problems commonly…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2022-02-16 Tuan Dam , Carlo D'Eramo , Jan Peters , Joni Pajarinen

Motivated by the prominence of Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR) as a measure for tail risk in settings affected by uncertainty, we develop a new formula for approximating CVaR based optimization objectives and their gradients from limited…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-08-25 Anand Deo , Karthyek Murthy

Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS) is a powerful approach to designing game-playing bots or solving sequential decision problems. The method relies on intelligent tree search that balances exploration and exploitation. MCTS performs random…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2023-04-04 Maciej Świechowski , Konrad Godlewski , Bartosz Sawicki , Jacek Mańdziuk

Constrained Markov decision processes (CMDPs), in which the agent optimizes expected payoffs while keeping the expected cost below a given threshold, are the leading framework for safe sequential decision making under stochastic…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2024-12-19 Martin Kurečka , Václav Nevyhoštěný , Petr Novotný , Vít Unčovský
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