Related papers: Predictive information criterion for jump diffusio…
In this paper, we consider the robust adaptive non parametric estimation problem for the drift coefficient in diffusion processes. An adaptive model selection procedure, based on the improved weighted least square estimates, is proposed.…
We investigate three different methods for systematically approximating the diffusion coefficient of a deterministic random walk on the line which contains dynamical correlations that change irregularly under parameter variation. Capturing…
A goodness of fit test for the drift coefficient of an ergodic diffusion process is presented. The test is based on the score marked empirical process. The weak convergence of the proposed test statistic is studied under the null hypotheses…
Affine jump-diffusions constitute a large class of continuous-time stochastic models that are particularly popular in finance and economics due to their analytical tractability. Methods for parameter estimation for such processes require…
We treat the change point problem in ergodic diffusion processes from discrete observations. Tonaki et al. (2020) proposed adaptive tests for detecting changes in the diffusion and drift parameters in ergodic diffusion models. When any…
This paper compares three approaches to the problem of selecting among probability models to fit data (1) use of statistical criteria such as Akaike's information criterion and Schwarz's "Bayesian information criterion," (2) maximization of…
Traditional probabilistic methods for the simulation of advection-diffusion equations (ADEs) often overlook the entropic contribution of the discretization, e.g., the number of particles, within associated numerical methods. Many times, the…
We emphasize that it is possible to improve the principle of unbiased risk estimation for model selection by addressing excess risk deviations in the design of penalization procedures. Indeed, we propose a modification of Akaike's…
Model selection and order selection problems frequently arise in statistical practice. A popular approach to addressing these problems in the frequentist setting involves information criteria based on penalised maxima of log-likelihoods for…
A stochastic diffusion process, whose mean function is a hyperbolastic curve of type I, is presented. Themain characteristics of the process are studied and the problem of maximum likelihood estimation forthe parameters of the process is…
We study ergodic properties of a class of Markov-modulated general birth-death processes under fast regime switching. The first set of results concerns the ergodic properties of the properly scaled joint Markov process with a parameter that…
In this study, we develop a deterministic nonlinear filtering algorithm based on a high-dimensional version of Kitagawa (1987) to evaluate the likelihood function of models that allow for stochastic volatility and jumps whose arrival…
We develop an algorithm for model selection which allows for the consideration of a combinatorially large number of candidate models governing a dynamical system. The innovation circumvents a disadvantage of standard model selection which…
News might trigger jump arrivals in financial time series. The "bad" and "good" news seems to have distinct impact. In the research, a double exponential jump distribution is applied to model downward and upward jumps. Bayesian double…
A number of discrete time, finite population size models in genetics describing the dynamics of allele frequencies are known to converge (subject to suitable scaling) to a diffusion process in the infinite population limit, termed the…
In this paper we consider the problem of calculating the quantiles of a risky position, the dynamic of which is described as a continuous time regime-switching jump-diffusion, by using Fourier Transform methods. Furthermore, we study a…
In this paper we consider an ergodic diffusion process with jumps whose drift coefficient depends on an unknown parameter $\theta$. We suppose that the process is discretely observed at the instants (t n i)i=0,...,n with $\Delta$n = sup…
We introduce a new criterion to determine the order of an autoregressive model fitted to time series data. It has the benefits of the two well-known model selection techniques, the Akaike information criterion and the Bayesian information…
The random walk with hyperbolic probabilities that we are introducing is an example of stochastic diffusion in a one-dimensional heterogeneous media. Although driven by site-dependent one-step transition probabilities, the process retains…
Gaussian quasi-likelihood estimation of the parameter $\theta$ in the square-root diffusion process is studied under high frequency sampling. Different from the previous study of Overbeck and Ryd\'{e}n(1998) under low-frequency sampling,…