Related papers: Predictive information criterion for jump diffusio…
The Akaike information criterion (AIC) is a model selection criterion widely used in practical applications. The AIC is an estimator of the log-likelihood expected value, and measures the discrepancy between the true model and the estimated…
We study parametric estimation of ergodic diffusions observed at high frequency. Different from the previous studies, we suppose that sampling stepsize is unknown, thereby making the conventional Gaussian quasi-likelihood not directly…
Error propagation formulae are derived for the expectation-maximization iterative unfolding algorithm regularized by a smoothing step. The effective number of parameters in the fit to the observed data is defined for unfolding procedures.…
We consider the question of estimating the drift and the invariant density for a large class of scalar ergodic diffusion processes, based on continuous observations, in $\sup$-norm loss. The unknown drift $b$ is supposed to belong to a…
In this paper, we consider stochastic versions of three classical growth models given by ordinary differential equations (ODEs). Indeed we use stochastic versions of Von Bertalanffy, Gompertz, and Logistic differential equations as models.…
We propose a test for model specification of a parametric diffusion process based on a kernel estimation of the transitional density of the process. The empirical likelihood is used to formulate a statistic, for each kernel smoothing…
Although the log-likelihood is widely used in model selection, the log-likelihood ratio has had few applications in this area. We develop a log-likelihood ratio based method for selecting regression models by focusing on the set of models…
We consider parametric estimation for ergodic diffusion processes with noisy sampled data based on the hybrid method, that is, the multi-step estimation with the initial Bayes type estimators. In order to select proper initial values for…
The Bayesian and Akaike information criteria aim at finding a good balance between under- and over-fitting. They are extensively used every day by practitioners. Yet we contend they suffer from at least two afflictions: their penalty…
The global estimation problem of the drift function is considered for a large class of ergodic diffusion processes. The unknown drift $S(\cdot)$ is supposed to belong to a nonparametric class of smooth functions of order $k\geq1$, but the…
In this paper,we consider a macro approximation of the flow of a risk reserve, The process is observed at discrete time points. Because we cannot directly observe each jump time and size then we will make use of a technique for identifying…
The Onsager--Machlup action functional is an important concept in statistical mechanics and thermodynamics to describe the probability of fluctuations in nonequilibrium systems. It provides a powerful tool for analyzing and predicting the…
In this paper we study the jump-diffusion CIR process (shorted as JCIR), which is an extension of the classical CIR model. The jumps of the JCIR are introduced with the help of a pure-jump L\'evy process $(J_t, t \ge 0)$. Under some…
We consider a lognormal diffusion process having a multisigmoidal logistic mean, useful to model the evolution of a population which reaches the maximum level of the growth after many stages. Referring to the problem of statistical…
In this paper, we introduce a new class of processes which are diffusions with jumps driven by a multivariate nonlinear Hawkes process. Our goal is to study their long-time behavior. In the case of exponential memory kernels for the…
Consider a system performing a continuous-time random walk on the integers, subject to catastrophes occurring at constant rate, and followed by exponentially-distributed repair times. After any repair the system starts anew from state zero.…
We introduce a point process regression model that is applicable to price models and limit order book models. Hawkes type autoregression in the intensity process is generalized to a stochastic regression to covariate processes. We establish…
Piecewise-deterministic Markov processes form a general class of non-diffusion stochastic models that involve both deterministic trajectories and random jumps at random times. In this paper, we state a new characterization of the jump rate…
We consider the adaptive test for the parameter change in discretely observed ergodic diffusion processes based on the cusum test. Using two test statistics based on the two quasi-log likelihood functions of the diffusion parameter and the…
We consider the problem of making nonparametric inference in a class of multi-dimensional diffusions in divergence form, from low-frequency data. Statistical analysis in this setting is notoriously challenging due to the intractability of…