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We propose a general framework for studying jump-diffusion systems driven by both Gaussian noise and a jump process with state-dependent intensity. Of particular natural interest are the jump locations: the system evaluated at the jump…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2018-09-28 Christopher E. Miles , James P. Keener

The semiparametric estimation approach, which includes inverse-probability-weighted and doubly robust estimation using propensity scores, is a standard tool in causal inference, and it is rapidly being extended in various directions. On the…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-12-29 Takamichi Baba , Yoshiyuki Ninomiya

Asymptotic theory for approximate martingale estimating functions is generalised to diffusions with finite-activity jumps, when the sampling frequency and terminal sampling time go to infinity. Rate optimality and efficiency are of…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-09-05 Nina Munkholt Jakobsen , Michael Sørensen

We test three common information criteria (IC) for selecting the order of a Hawkes process with an intensity kernel that can be expressed as a mixture of exponential terms. These processes find application in high-frequency financial data…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2017-04-05 J. M. Chen , A. G. Hawkes , E. Scalas , M. Trinh

The Akaike information criterion (AIC) is commonly used to select a logistic regression model for optimal prediction of a binary response by a specified family of models. It however lacks a convincing method of prescribing a proper family…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-04-10 Jiun-Wei Liou , Michelle Liou , Philip E. Cheng , Chin-Chiuan Lin

Information criteria such as Akaike's (AIC) and Bayes' (BIC) are widely used for model selection in physics and beyond, quantifying the tradeoff between model complexity and goodness-of-fit to enforce parsimony. However, their derivation…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2025-11-20 Kumar Utkarsh , Daniel M. Abrams

We obtain large deviation results for a two time-scale model of jump-diffusion processes. The processes on the two time scales are fully inter-dependent, the slow process has small perturbative noise and the fast process is ergodic. Our…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-09-19 Rohini Kumar , Lea Popovic

Switching dynamical systems provide a powerful, interpretable modeling framework for inference in time-series data in, e.g., the natural sciences or engineering applications. Since many areas, such as biology or discrete-event systems, are…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-09-30 Lukas Köhs , Bastian Alt , Heinz Koeppl

In this paper, we are interested in conditional McKean-Vlasov jump diffusions, which are also termed as McKean-Vlasov stochastic differential equations with jump idiosyncratic noise and jump common noise. As far as conditional McKean-Vlasov…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-09-03 Jianhai Bao , Yao Liu , Jian Wang

This paper studies an approximation method for the log-likelihood function of a nonlinear diffusion process using the bridge of the diffusion. The main result (Theorem \refthm:approx) shows that this approximation converges uniformly to the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2010-01-11 Aleksandar Mijatović , Paul Schneider

In this paper, we study the long-time behavior of a fluid particle immersed in a turbulent fluid driven by a diffusion with jumps, that is, a Feller process associated with a non-local operator. We derive the law of large numbers and…

Probability · Mathematics 2015-02-17 Guodong Pang , Nikola Sandrić

We consider regression models with data of the type $y_i=m(x_i)+\varepsilon_i$, where the $m(x)$ curve is taken locally constant, with unknown levels and jump points. We investigate the large-sample properties of the minimum least squares…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-02-26 Steffen Grønneberg , Gudmund Hermansen , Nils Lid Hjort

This is an attempt to address diffusion phenomena from the point of view of information theory. We imagine a regular hamiltonian system under the random perturbation of thermal (molecular) noise and chaotic instability. The irregularity of…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2007-05-23 Qiuping A. Wang

We derive a universal, exact asymptotic form of the splitting probability for symmetric continuous jump processes, which quantifies the probability $ \pi_{0,\underline{x}}(x_0)$ that the process crosses $x$ before 0 starting from a given…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2022-10-12 Jérémie Klinger , Raphaël Voituriez , Olivier Bénichou

We introduce a methodology for performing parameter inference in high-dimensional, non-linear diffusion processes. We illustrate its applicability for obtaining insights into the evolution of and relationships between species, including…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-11-15 Nicklas Boserup , Gefan Yang , Michael Lind Severinsen , Christy Anna Hipsley , Stefan Sommer

In this paper, a modification of the conventional approximations to the quasi-maximum likelihood method is introduced for the parameter estimation of diffusion processes from discrete observations. This is based on a convergent…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2013-12-19 J. C. Jimenez

Score-based diffusion models synthesize samples by reversing a stochastic process that diffuses data to noise, and are trained by minimizing a weighted combination of score matching losses. The log-likelihood of score-based diffusion models…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-10-22 Yang Song , Conor Durkan , Iain Murray , Stefano Ermon

In this paper, we consider a one-dimensional diffusion process with jumps driven by a Hawkes process. We are interested in the estimations of the volatility function and of the jump function from discrete high-frequency observations in a…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-04-28 Chiara Amorino , Charlotte Dion , Arnaud Gloter , Sarah Lemler

A piecewise-deterministic Markov process is a stochastic process whose behavior is governed by an ordinary differential equation punctuated by random jumps occurring at random times. We focus on the nonparametric estimation problem of the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-05-24 Romain Azaïs , Aurélie Muller-Gueudin

A general method is proposed which allows one to estimate drift and diffusion coefficients of a stochastic process governed by a Langevin equation. It extends a previously devised approach [R. Friedrich et al., Physics Letters A 271, 217…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2009-11-11 D. Kleinhans , R. Friedrich , A. Nawroth , J. Peinke