Related papers: A general randomized test for Alpha
Model checking plays an important role in linear regression as model misspecification seriously affects the validity and efficiency of regression analysis. In practice, model checking is often performed by subjectively evaluating the plot…
Traditionally, traders and quantitative analysts address alpha decay by manually crafting formulaic alphas, mathematical expressions that identify patterns or signals in financial data, through domain expertise and trial-and-error. This…
We propose a Fundamental Theorem of Asset Pricing and a Super-Replication Theorem in a model-independent framework. We prove these theorems in the setting of finite, discrete time and a market consisting of a risky asset S as well as…
This paper is concerned with nonlinear filtering of the coefficients in asset price models with stochastic volatility. More specifically, we assume that the asset price process $S=(S_{t})_{t\geq0}$ is given by \[ dS_{t}=m(\theta_{t})S_{t}…
We propose a general framework for the specification testing of continuous treatment effect models. We assume a general residual function, which includes the average and quantile treatment effect models as special cases. The null models are…
We propose a procedure to decide between the null hypothesis of (strict) stationarity and the alternative of non-stationarity, in the context of a Random Coefficient AutoRegression (RCAR). The procedure is based on randomising a diagnostic…
We study a continuous-time financial market with continuous price processes under model uncertainty, modeled via a family $\mathcal{P}$ of possible physical measures. A robust notion ${\rm NA}_{1}(\mathcal{P})$ of no-arbitrage of the first…
We develop a pseudo maximum likelihood method for latent factor analysis in short panels without imposing sphericity nor Gaussianity. We derive an asymptotically uniformly most powerful invariant test for the number of factors. On a large…
We propose a theoretical framework for the problem of learning a real-valued function which meets fairness requirements. This framework is built upon the notion of $\alpha$-relative (fairness) improvement of the regression function which we…
Fisher's randomization test (FRT) delivers exact $p$-values under the strong null hypothesis of no treatment effect on any units whatsoever and allows for flexible covariate adjustment to improve the power. Of interest is whether the…
Consider a random vector $(X,Y)$ and let $m(x)=E(Y|X=x)$. We are interested in testing $H_0:m\in {\cal M}_{\Theta,{\cal G}}=\{\gamma(\cdot,\theta,g):\theta \in \Theta,g\in {\cal G}\}$ for some known function $\gamma$, some compact set…
We test a historical price time series in a financial market (the NASDAQ 100 index) for a statistical property known as detailed balance. The presence of detailed balance would imply that the market can be modeled by a stochastic process…
In this paper, we introduce EvoPort, a novel evolutionary portfolio optimization method that leverages stochastic exploration over a spectrum of investment pipeline depths. From raw equity data, we employ a randomized feature generation…
We consider the problem of simulating loss probabilities and conditional excesses for linear asset portfolios under the t-copula model. Although in the literature on market risk management there are papers proposing efficient variance…
We propose a kernel-based nonparametric framework for mean-variance optimization that enables inference on economically motivated shape constraints in finance, including positivity, monotonicity, and convexity. Many central hypotheses in…
This paper introduces a likelihood ratio (LR)-type test that possesses the robustness properties of \(C(\alpha)\)-type procedures in an extremum estimation setting. The test statistic is constructed by applying separate adjustments to the…
Foundation models - already transformative in domains such as natural language processing - are now starting to emerge for time-series tasks in finance. While these pretrained architectures promise versatile predictive signals, little is…
We propose a framework for constructing factor models for alpha streams. Our motivation is threefold. 1) When the number of alphas is large, the sample covariance matrix is singular. 2) Its out-of-sample stability is challenging. 3)…
In this article, we propose a factor-adjusted multiple testing (FAT) procedure based on factor-adjusted p-values in a linear factor model involving some observable and unobservable factors, for the purpose of selecting skilled funds in…
We present supremum Lagrange Multiplier tests to compare a linear ARMA specification against its threshold ARMA extension. We derive the asymptotic distribution of the test statistics both under the null hypothesis and contiguous local…