Related papers: A general randomized test for Alpha
We show that the lack of arbitrage in a model with both fixed and proportional transaction costs is equivalent to the existence of a family of absolutely continuous single-step probability measures, together with an adapted process with…
Beta-sorted portfolios -- portfolios comprised of assets with similar covariation to selected risk factors -- are a popular tool in empirical finance to analyze models of (conditional) expected returns. Despite their widespread use, little…
Residual marked empirical process-based tests are commonly used in regression models. However, they suffer from data sparseness in high-dimensional space when there are many covariates. This paper has three purposes. First, we suggest a…
We introduce the notion of a risk-limiting financial auditing (RLFA): given $N$ transactions, the goal is to estimate the total misstated monetary fraction~($m^*$) to a given accuracy $\epsilon$, with confidence $1-\delta$. We do this by…
We extend the fundamental theorem of asset pricing to a model where the risky stock is subject to proportional transaction costs in the form of bid-ask spreads and the bank account has different interest rates for borrowing and lending. We…
Given observations from a stationary time series, permutation tests allow one to construct exactly level $\alpha$ tests under the null hypothesis of an i.i.d. (or, more generally, exchangeable) distribution. On the other hand, when the null…
Formula alpha mining, which generates predictive signals from financial data, is critical for quantitative investment. Although various algorithmic approaches-such as genetic programming, reinforcement learning, and large language…
In this paper we introduce a new approach to model-free path-dependent option pricing. We first introduce a general duality result for linear optimisation problems over signed measures introduced in [3] and show how the the problem of…
Statistical inference for large data panels is omnipresent in modern economic applications. An important benefit of panel analysis is the possibility to reduce noise and thus to guarantee stable inference by intersectional pooling. However,…
In this paper we provide a quantitative analysis to the concept of arbitrage, that allows to deal with model uncertainty without imposing the no-arbitrage condition. In markets that admit ``small arbitrage", we can still make sense of the…
In this paper, we propose a test procedure based on the LASSO methodology to test the global null hypothesis of no dependence between a response variable and $p$ predictors, where $n$ observations with $n < p$ are available. The proposed…
We propose a procedure to determine the dimension of the common factor space in a large, possibly non-stationary, dataset. Our procedure is designed to determine whether there are (and how many) common factors (i) with linear trends, (ii)…
We introduce When Alpha Disappears, a paired evaluation benchmark for diagnosing decision-time leakage in financial machine-learning backtests. Rather than treating leakage as a binary property, the benchmark estimates protocol-induced…
This paper studies new tests for the number of latent factors in a large cross-sectional factor model with small time dimension. These tests are based on the eigenvalues of variance-covariance matrices of (possibly weighted) asset returns,…
We prove the Fundamental Theorem of Asset Pricing for a discrete time financial market where trading is subject to proportional transaction cost and the asset price dynamic is modeled by a family of probability measures, possibly…
We give an explicit algorithm and source code for extracting expected returns for stocks from expected returns for alphas. Our algorithm altogether bypasses combining alphas with weights into "alpha combos". Simply put, we have developed a…
Let X; Z be r and s-dimensional covariates, respectively, used to model the response variable Y as Y = m(X;Z) + \sigma(X;Z)\epsilon. We develop an ANOVA-type test for the null hypothesis that Z has no influence on the regression function,…
This paper investigates how to measure common market risk factors using newly proposed Panel Quantile Regression Model for Returns. By exploring the fact that volatility crosses all quantiles of the return distribution and using penalized…
Determining a lack of association between an outcome variable and a number of different explanatory variables is frequently necessary in order to disregard a proposed model (i.e., to confirm the lack of an association between an outcome and…
We show here that every non-adaptive property testing algorithm making a constant number of queries, over a fixed alphabet, can be converted to a sample-based (as per [Goldreich and Ron, 2015]) testing algorithm whose average number of…