Related papers: A general randomized test for Alpha
We presented Bayesian portfolio selection strategy, via the $k$ factor asset pricing model. If the market is information efficient, the proposed strategy will mimic the market; otherwise, the strategy will outperform the market. The…
We present a new test of hypothesis in which we seek the probability of the null conditioned on the data, where the null is a simplification undertaken to counter the intractability of the more complex model, that the simpler null model is…
Simple Monte Carlo is a versatile computational method with a convergence rate of $O(n^{-1/2})$. It can be used to estimate the means of random variables whose distributions are unknown. Bernoulli random variables, $Y$, are widely used to…
We propose a set of goodness-of-fit tests for the semiparametric accelerated failure time (AFT) model, including an omnibus test, a link function test, and a functional form test. This set of tests is derived from a multi-parameter…
We investigate the problem of testing the global null in the high-dimensional regression models when the feature dimension $p$ grows proportionally to the number of observations $n$. Despite a number of prior work studying this problem,…
In the information-based approach to asset pricing the market filtration is modelled explicitly as a superposition of signals concerning relevant market factors and independent noise. The rate at which the signal is revealed to the market…
The AlphaZero framework provides a standard way of combining Monte Carlo planning with prior knowledge provided by a previously trained policy-value neural network. AlphaZero usually assumes that the environment on which the neural network…
We propose a general scheme to create time sequences that fulfill given constraints but are random otherwise. Significance levels for nonlinearity tests are as usually obtained by Monte Carlo resampling. In a new scheme, constraints…
Suppose that a data analyst wishes to report the results of a least squares linear regression only if the overall null hypothesis, $H_0^{1:p}: \beta_1= \beta_2 = \ldots = \beta_p=0$, is rejected. This practice, which we refer to as…
This paper addresses the problem of fitting a known distribution to the innovation distribution in a class of stationary and ergodic time series models. The asymptotic null distribution of the usual Kolmogorov--Smirnov test based on the…
In this paper, we develop invariance-based procedures for testing and inference in high-dimensional regression models. These procedures, also known as randomization tests, provide several important advantages. First, for the global null…
We give an explicit algorithm and source code for extracting equity risk factors from dead (a.k.a. "flatlined" or "hockey-stick") alphas and using them to improve performance characteristics of good (tradable) alphas. In a nutshell, we use…
We find that the CAPM fails to explain the small firm effect even if its non-parametric form is used which allows time-varying risk and non-linearity in the pricing function. Furthermore, the linearity of the CAPM can be rejected, thus the…
The purpose of this paper is two-fold. First is to extend the notions of an n-dimensional semimartingale and its stochastic integral to a piecewise semimartingale of stochastic dimension. The properties of the former carry over largely…
There are inefficiencies in financial markets, with unexploited patterns in price, volume, and cross-sectional relationships. While many approaches use large-scale transformers, we take a domain-focused path: feed-forward and recurrent…
We derive a closed-form expression capturing the degree of Relative Risk Aversion (RRA) of investors for non-"fair" lotteries. We argue that our formula is superior to earlier methods that have been proposed, as it is a function of only…
Providing a measure of market risk is an important issue for investors and financial institutions. However, the existing models for this purpose are per definition symmetric. The current paper introduces an asymmetric capital asset pricing…
We study factor models that combine latent factors with firm characteristics and propose a new framework for modeling, estimating, and inferring pricing errors. Following Zhang (2024), our approach decomposes mispricing into two distinct…
The issue addressed in this paper is that of testing for common breaks across or within equations of a multivariate system. Our framework is very general and allows integrated regressors and trends as well as stationary regressors. The null…
The present article explores the application of randomized control techniques in empirical asset pricing and performance evaluation. It introduces geometric random walks, a class of Markov chain Monte Carlo methods, to construct flexible…