Related papers: Change point detection in ERA5 ground temperature …
This paper presents a statistical analysis of structural changes in the Central England temperature series, one of the longest surface temperature records available. A changepoint analysis is performed to detect abrupt changes, which can be…
Reanalyses such as ERA5 have long been foundational for weather and climate science. They have also found a new use case, as training and verification data for machine-learnt weather prediction (MLWP) models. Here we compare short-lead time…
The development of robust Early Warning Signals (EWS) is necessary to quantify the risk of crossing tipping points in the present-day climate change. Classically, EWS are statistical measures based on time series of climate state variables,…
A climate state close to a tipping point will have a degenerate linear response to perturbations, which can be associated with extreme values of the equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS). In this paper we contrast linearized…
The potential for complex systems to exhibit tipping points in which an equilibrium state undergoes a sudden and often irreversible shift is well established, but prediction of these events using standard forecast modeling techniques is…
The reliability of ERA5 satellite-based air temperature data is under investigation in this paper. To evaluate this, the ERA5 data will be compared with land-based data obtained from weather stations on the Global Historical Climatology…
This paper shows an analysis of the gridded European precipitation data. We combine simple linear regression with data mining tools like clustering, and evaluate the strength of the results by the modern bootstrap methods. We have used the…
Changing climate conditions threaten the natural permafrost thaw-freeze cycle, leading to year-round soil temperatures above 0{\deg}C. In Alaska, the warming of the topmost permafrost layer, known as the active layer, signals elevated…
Climate response metrics are used to quantify the Earth's climate response to anthropogenic changes of atmospheric CO2. Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity (ECS) is one such metric that measures the equilibrium response to CO2 doubling.…
It is often known, from modelling studies, that a certain mode of climate tipping (of the oceanic thermohaline circulation, for example) is governed by an underlying fold bifurcation. For such a case we present a scheme of analysis that…
One of the main challenges in identifying structural changes in stochastic processes is to carry out analysis for time series with dependency structure in a computationally tractable way. Another challenge is that the number of true change…
Climate changepoint (homogenization) methods abound today, with a myriad of techniques existing in both the climate and statistics literature. Unfortunately, the appropriate changepoint technique to use remains unclear to many. Further…
Most climate trend studies analyze long-term trends as a proxy for climate dynamics. However, when examining seasonal data, it is unrealistic to assume that long-term trends remain consistent across all seasons. Instead, each season likely…
Modern deep learning techniques, which mimic traditional numerical weather prediction (NWP) models and are derived from global atmospheric reanalysis data, have caused a significant revolution within a few years. In this new paradigm, our…
One of the most used metrics to gauge the effects of climate change is the equilibrium climate sensitivity, defined as the long-term (equilibrium) temperature increase resulting from instantaneous doubling of atmospheric CO$_2$. Since…
We introduce a novel geometry-oriented methodology, based on the emerging tools of topological data analysis, into the change point detection framework. The key rationale is that change points are likely to be associated with changes in…
In environmental and climate data, there is often an interest in determining if and when changes occur in a system. Such changes may result from localized sources in space and time like a volcanic eruption or climate geoengineering events.…
Tipping elements of the Earth system may shift abruptly and irreversibly from one state to another at tipping points, resulting in a growing threat to our society. Yet, it is not fully clear how to assess and quantify the influence of a…
Current techniques for predicting climate change are mainly based on "massive" deterministic numerical modeling. However, the ocean-atmosphere system is a so-called "complex system", made up of a large number of interacting elements. We…
The global mean surface temperature is widely studied to monitor climate change. A current debate centers around whether there has been a recent (post-1970s) surge/acceleration in the warming rate. This paper addresses whether an…