Related papers: Change point detection in ERA5 ground temperature …

Time series, as frequently the case in neuroscience, are rarely stationary, but often exhibit abrupt changes due to attractor transitions or bifurcations in the dynamical systems producing them. A plethora of methods for detecting such…

Past research has shown that multiple climate subsystems might undergo abrupt shifts, such as the Arctic Winter sea ice or the Amazon rainforest, but there are large uncertainties regarding their timing and spatial extent. In this study we…

Change points in real-world systems mark significant regime shifts in system dynamics, possibly triggered by exogenous or endogenous factors. These points define regimes for the time evolution of the system and are crucial for understanding…

We present a new approach to modeling the future development of extreme temperatures globally and on a long time-scale by using non-stationary generalized extreme value distributions in combination with logistic functions. This approach is…

Detecting and attributing temperature increases driven by climate change is crucial for understanding global warming and informing adaptation strategies. However, distinguishing human-induced climate signals from natural variability remains…

Modelling long time series of photovoltaic electricity generation in high temporal resolution using reanalysis data has become a commonly used alternative to assess the viability of systems with high shares of renewables, their risks of…

This review synthesizes recent advancements in understanding tipping points and cascading transitions within the Earth system, framing them through the lens of nonlinear dynamics and complexity science. It outlines the fundamental concepts…

Estimating the variability of seasonal snow cover, in particular snow depth in remote areas, poses significant challenges due to limited spatial and temporal data availability. This study uses snow depth measurements from the ICESat-2…

Decisions related to electric power systems planning and operations rely on assumptions and insights informed by historic weather data and records of past performance. Evolving climate trends are, however, changing the energy use patterns…

This paper proposes an information theory approach to estimate the number of changepoints and their locations in a climatic time series. A model is introduced that has an unknown number of changepoints and allows for series…

Many systems of interacting elements can be conceptualized as networks, where network nodes represent the elements and network ties represent interactions between the elements. In systems where the underlying network evolves in time, it is…

Efforts to reduce climate change, but also falling prices and significant technology developments currently drive an increased weather-dependent electricity production from renewable electricity sources. In light of the changing climate, it…

Reanalysis data are widely used for simulating renewable energy and in particular wind power generation. While MERRA-2 has been a de-facto standard in many studies, the newer ERA5- reanalysis recently gained importance. Here, we use these…

Rapid changes in climatic conditions threaten both socioeconomic and ecological systems, as these might not be able to adapt or to migrate at the same pace as that of global warming. In particular, an increase of weather and climate…

The climate system's nonlinear dynamics is influenced by various external forcings and internal feedbacks that can give rise to regional and even global tipping points that may lead to significant and potentially irreversible changes.…

Soil moisture dynamics provide an indicator of soil health that scientists model via drydown curves. The typical modelling process requires the soil moisture time series to be manually separated into drydown segments and then exponential…

We present a data-driven approach for forecasting global weather using graph neural networks. The system learns to step forward the current 3D atmospheric state by six hours, and multiple steps are chained together to produce skillful…

Climate tipping points are critical thresholds in Earth's climate system where a small change can cause abrupt and potentially irreversible shifts towards a new state. Tipping points in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC)…

This paper proposes a new minimum description length procedure to detect multiple changepoints in time series data when some times are a priori thought more likely to be changepoints. This scenario arises with temperature time series…

Global warming presents an unprecedented challenge to our planet however comprehensive understanding remains hindered by geographical biases temporal limitations and lack of standardization in existing research. An end to end visual…