Related papers: Change point detection in ERA5 ground temperature …
Reanalysis products such as the ERA5 reanalysis are commonly used as proxies for observed atmospheric conditions. These products are convenient to use due to their global coverage, the large number of available atmospheric variables and the…
A new method of regime shift detection in the correlation coefficient is proposed. The method is designed to find multiple change-points with unknown locations in time series. It signals a possible regime shift in real time and allows for…
The Arctic has warmed dramatically compared to the global average over the last few decades. During this same period, there have been strong cooling trends observed in the wintertime, near-surface air temperature over central Eurasia, a…
The focus of our work is improving the interpretability of anomalies in climate models and advancing our understanding of Arctic melt dynamics. The Arctic and Antarctic ice sheets are experiencing rapid surface melting and increased…
Abrupt and irreversible winter Arctic sea-ice loss may occur under anthropogenic warming due to the collapse of a sea-ice equilibrium at a threshold value of CO$_2$, commonly referred to as a tipping point. Previous work has been unable to…
The reanalysis datasets provide very important sources for investigating the climate dynamics and climate changes in Antarctica. In this paper, three major reanalysis data are compared with Antarctic station data over the last 35 years: the…
Determining changes in global temperature and precipitation that may indicate climate change is complicated by annual variations. One approach for finding potential climate change indicators is to train a model that predicts the year from…
This paper proposes strategies to detect time reversibility in stationary stochastic processes by using the properties of mixed causal and noncausal models. It shows that they can also be used for non-stationary processes when the trend…
We revisit a recent claim that the Earth's climate system is characterized by sensitive dependence to parameters; in particular, that the system exhibits an asymmetric, large-amplitude response to normally distributed feedback forcing. Such…
Tipping points associated with bifurcations (B-tipping) or induced by noise (N-tipping) are recognized mechanisms that may potentially lead to sudden climate change. We focus here a novel class of tipping points, where a sufficiently rapid…
It is quite common that the structure of a time series changes abruptly. Identifying these change points and describing the model structure in the segments between these change points is of interest. In this paper, time series data is…
Current models for spatial extremes are concerned with the joint upper (or lower) tail of the distribution at two or more locations. Such models cannot account for teleconnection patterns of two-meter surface air temperature ($T_{2m}$) in…
We study the mitigation of climate tipping point transitions using an energy balance model. The evolution of the global mean surface temperature is coupled with the CO2 concentration through the green house effect. We model the CO2…
Urbanization of an area is known to increase the temperature of the surrounding area. This phenomenon -- a so-called urban heat island (UHI) -- occurs at a local level over a period of time and has lasting impacts for historical data…
With rising global temperatures Earth's tipping elements are becoming increasingly more vulnerable to crossing their critical thresholds. The reaching of such tipping points does not only impact other tipping elements through their…
Current early warning signs for tipping points often fail to distinguish between catastrophic shifts and less dramatic state changes, such as spatial pattern formation. This paper introduces a novel method that addresses this limitation by…
Understanding seasonal climatic conditions is critical for better management of resources such as water, energy and agriculture. Recently, there has been a great interest in utilizing the power of artificial intelligence methods in climate…
Sites for next-generation telescopes are chosen decades before the first light of a telescope. Site selection is usually based on recent measurements over a period that is too short to account for long-term changes in observing conditions…
Model studies indicate that many climate subsystems, especially ecosystems, may be vulnerable to 'tipping': a 'catastrophic process' in which a system, driven by gradually changing external factors, abruptly transitions (or 'collapses')…
Estimating historical evapotranspiration (ET) is essential for understanding the effects of climate change and human activities on the water cycle. This study used historical weather station data to reconstruct ET trends over the past 300…