Related papers: A Note on Inferential Decisions, Errors and Path-D…

This work investigates binary hypothesis testing between $H_0\sim P_0$ and $H_1\sim P_1$ in the finite-sample regime under asymmetric error constraints. By employing the ``reverse" R\'enyi divergence, we derive novel non-asymptotic bounds…

Compositional data (i.e., data comprising random variables that sum up to a constant) arises in many applications including microbiome studies, chemical ecology, political science, and experimental designs. Yet when compositional data serve…

Unaided human decision making appears to systematically violate consistency constraints imposed by normative theories; these biases in turn appear to justify the application of formal decision-analytic models. It is argued that both claims…

Methods for sequential decision-making are often built upon a foundational assumption that the underlying decision process is stationary. This limits the application of such methods because real-world problems are often subject to changes…

Inference amortization methods share information across multiple posterior-inference problems, allowing each to be carried out more efficiently. Generally, they require the inversion of the dependency structure in the generative model, as…

For binary outcome models, an endogeneity correction based on nonlinear rank-based transformations is proposed. Identification without external instruments is achieved under one of two assumptions: either the endogenous regressor is a…

Ordinal pattern dependence is a multivariate dependence measure based on the co-movement of two time series. In strong connection to ordinal time series analysis, the ordinal information is taken into account to derive robust results on the…

The analysis of decision making under uncertainty is closely related to the analysis of probabilistic inference. Indeed, much of the research into efficient methods for probabilistic inference in expert systems has been motivated by the…

We consider the problem of inference on the signs of $n>1$ parameters. We aim to provide $1-\alpha$ post-hoc confidence bounds on the number of positive and negative (or non-positive) parameters. The guarantee is simultaneous, for all…

Hierarchical models are versatile tools for joint modeling of data sets arising from different, but related, sources. Fully Bayesian inference may, however, become computationally prohibitive if the source-specific data models are complex,…

We study conditions so that the determinantal point process $\Lambda_\phi$ associated to a generalized Fock space defined by a doubling subharmonic weight $\phi$ is almost surely a separated sequence in $\mathbb C$. Under a natural…

In a posteriori error analysis, the relationship between error and estimator is usually spoiled by so-called oscillation terms, which cannot be bounded by the error. In order to remedy, we devise a new approach where the oscillation has the…

Empirical research in the social and medical sciences frequently involves testing multiple hypotheses simultaneously, increasing the risk of false positives due to chance. Classical multiple testing procedures, such as the Bonferroni…

We study the problems of sequential nonparametric two-sample and independence testing. Sequential tests process data online and allow using observed data to decide whether to stop and reject the null hypothesis or to collect more data,…

In this paper, we develop a family of bivariate beta distributions that encapsulate both positive and negative correlations, and which can be of general interest for Bayesian inference. We then invoke a use of these bivariate distributions…

We give a finite-sample analysis of predictive inference procedures after model selection in regression with random design. The analysis is focused on a statistically challenging scenario where the number of potentially important…

In this paper, an empirical evaluation of three inference methods for uncertain reasoning is presented in the context of Pathfinder, a large expert system for the diagnosis of lymph-node pathology. The inference procedures evaluated are (1)…

We present a spectrum of trace-based, testing, and bisimulation equivalences for nondeterministic and probabilistic processes whose activities are all observable. For every equivalence under study, we examine the discriminating power of…

This paper presents a probabilistic model for reasoning about the state of a system as it changes over time, both due to exogenous and endogenous influences. Our target domain is a class of medical prediction problems that are neither so…

We develop a representation of a decision maker's uncertainty based on e-variables. Like the Bayesian posterior, this *e-posterior* allows for making predictions against arbitrary loss functions that may not be specified ex ante. Unlike the…