English

An Empirical Comparison of Three Inference Methods

Artificial Intelligence 2023-01-26 v3

Abstract

In this paper, an empirical evaluation of three inference methods for uncertain reasoning is presented in the context of Pathfinder, a large expert system for the diagnosis of lymph-node pathology. The inference procedures evaluated are (1) Bayes' theorem, assuming evidence is conditionally independent given each hypothesis; (2) odds-likelihood updating, assuming evidence is conditionally independent given each hypothesis and given the negation of each hypothesis; and (3) a inference method related to the Dempster-Shafer theory of belief. Both expert-rating and decision-theoretic metrics are used to compare the diagnostic accuracy of the inference methods.

Keywords

Cite

@article{arxiv.1304.2357,
  title  = {An Empirical Comparison of Three Inference Methods},
  author = {David Heckerman},
  journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:1304.2357},
  year   = {2023}
}

Comments

Appears in Proceedings of the Fourth Conference on Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence (UAI1988). LaTex errors corrected in this version

R2 v1 2026-06-21T23:56:01.622Z