Related papers: Bias Corrected Variance Stabilizing Transformation…
A lower bound on the minimum mean-squared error (MSE) in a Bayesian estimation problem is proposed in this paper. This bound utilizes a well-known connection to the deterministic estimation setting. Using the prior distribution, the bias…
Fine stratification survey is useful in many applications as its point estimator is unbiased, but the variance estimator under the design cannot be easily obtained, particularly when the sample size per stratum is as small as one unit. One…
Empirical Bayes (EB) improves the accuracy of simultaneous inference "by learning from the experience of others" (Efron, 2012). Classical EB theory focuses on latent variables that are iid draws from a fitted prior (Efron, 2019). Modern…
The celebrated Bernstein von-Mises theorem ensures that credible regions from Bayesian posterior are well-calibrated when the model is correctly-specified, in the frequentist sense that their coverage probabilities tend to the nominal…
In this paper we derive a second-order unbiased (or nearly unbiased) mean squared prediction error (MSPE) estimator of the empirical best linear unbiased predictor (EBLUP) of a small area mean for a semi-parametric extension to the…
Bessel's correction adjusts the denominator in the sample variance formula from n to n-1 to ensure an unbiased estimator of the population variance. This paper provides rigorous algebraic derivations geometric interpretations and…
Variational Bayes (VB) provides a computationally efficient alternative to Markov Chain Monte Carlo, especially for high-dimensional and large-scale inference. However, existing theory on VB primarily focuses on fixed-dimensional settings…
Fine stratification is a popular design as it permits the stratification to be carried out to the fullest possible extent. Some examples include the Current Population Survey and National Crime Victimization Survey both conducted by the…
State-space models (SSMs) are a popular tool for modeling animal abundances. Inference difficulties for simple linear SSMs are well known, particularly in relation to simultaneous estimation of process and observation variances. Several…
Regional data analysis is concerned with the analysis and modeling of measurements that are spatially separated by specifically accounting for typical features of such data. Namely, measurements in close proximity tend to be more similar…
A central challenge in statistical inference is the presence of confounding variables that may distort observed associations between treatment and outcome. Conventional "causal" methods, grounded in assumptions such as ignorability, exclude…
Bagging can significantly improve the generalization performance of unstable machine learning algorithms such as trees or neural networks. Though bagging is now widely used in practice and many empirical studies have explored its behavior,…
The class of algorithms called Hessian Estimation Evolution Strategies (HE-ESs) update the covariance matrix of their sampling distribution by directly estimating the curvature of the objective function. The approach is practically…
In recent years, the field of machine learning has made phenomenal progress in the pursuit of simulating real-world data generation processes. One notable example of such success is the variational autoencoder (VAE). In this work, with a…
We consider the linear regression problem under semi-supervised settings wherein the available data typically consists of: (i) a small or moderate sized 'labeled' data, and (ii) a much larger sized 'unlabeled' data. Such data arises…
This paper investigates estimation of the mean vector under invariant quadratic loss for a spherically symmetric location family with a residual vector with density of the form $ f(x,u)=\eta^{(p+n)/2}f(\eta\{\|x-\theta\|^2+\|u\|^2\}) $,…
Understanding the uncertainty of a neural network's (NN) predictions is essential for many purposes. The Bayesian framework provides a principled approach to this, however applying it to NNs is challenging due to large numbers of parameters…
For normal canonical models, and more generally a vast array of general spherically symmetric location-scale models with a residual vector, we consider estimating the (univariate) location parameter when it is lower bounded. We provide…
In this manuscript, we propose to use a variational autoencoder-based framework for parameterizing a conditional linear minimum mean squared error estimator. The variational autoencoder models the underlying unknown data distribution as…
In the small area estimation, the empirical best linear unbiased predictor (EBLUP) in the linear mixed model is useful because it gives a stable estimate for a mean of a smallarea. For measuring uncertainty of EBLUP, much of research is…