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Small area estimation (SAE) improves estimates for local communities or groups, such as counties, neighborhoods, or demographic subgroups, when data are insufficient for each area. This is important for targeting local resources and…

Bayesian methods have proved powerful in many applications for the inference of model parameters from data. These methods are based on Bayes' theorem, which itself is deceptively simple. However, in practice the computations required are…

Empirical Bayes methods are widely used for large-scale inference, yet most classical approaches assume homoscedastic observations and focus primarily on posterior mean estimation. We develop a nonparametric empirical Bayes framework for…

In inference problems involving a multi-dimensional parameter $\theta$, it is often natural to consider decision rules that have a risk which is invariant under some group $G$ of permutations of $\theta$. We show that this implies that the…

Approximate Bayesian Computation is a family of likelihood-free inference techniques that are well-suited to models defined in terms of a stochastic generating mechanism. In a nutshell, Approximate Bayesian Computation proceeds by computing…

Towards understanding the fundamental limits of estimation from data of varied quality, we study the problem of estimating a mean parameter from heteroskedastic Gaussian observations where the variances are unknown and may vary arbitrarily…

Mean-field Variational Bayes (MFVB) is an approximate Bayesian posterior inference technique that is increasingly popular due to its fast runtimes on large-scale datasets. However, even when MFVB provides accurate posterior means for…

We consider density estimation under measurement error with the Smoothness-Penalized Deconvolution (SPeD) estimator. The estimator has a tuning parameter regulating the smoothness of the estimate, and proper choice of this parameter is…

The problem of adaptive sampling for estimating probability mass functions (pmf) uniformly well is considered. Performance of the sampling strategy is measured in terms of the worst-case mean squared error. A Bayesian variant of the…

Accurate estimates of subnational health and demographic indicators are critical for informing health policy decisions. Many countries collect relevant data using complex household surveys, but when data are limited, direct survey weighted…

This paper devises a fully Bayesian sample size determination method for hierarchical model-based small area estimation with a decision risk approach. A new loss function specified around a desired maximum posterior variance target…

Let y=A\beta+\epsilon, where y is an N\times1 vector of observations, \beta is a p\times1 vector of unknown regression coefficients, A is an N\times p design matrix and \epsilon is a spherically symmetric error term with unknown scale…

In this work, inspired by machine learning techniques, we propose a new Bayesian model for Small Area Estimation (SAE), the Fay-Herriot model with Spectral Clustering (FH-SC). Unlike traditional approaches, clustering in FH-SC is based on…

Random effects are the gold standard for capturing structural heterogeneity in data, such as spatial dependencies, individual differences, or temporal dependencies. However, testing for their presence is challenging, as it involves a…

There has been recent growth in small area estimation due to the need for more precise estimation of small geographic areas, which has led to groups such as the U.S. Census Bureau, Google, and the RAND corporation utilizing small area…

Solving inverse problems involving measurement noise and modeling errors requires regularization in order to avoid data overfit. Geophysical inverse problems, in which the Earth's highly heterogeneous structure is unknown, present a…

Causal inference, especially in observational studies, relies on untestable assumptions about the true data-generating process. Sensitivity analysis helps us determine how robust our conclusions are when we alter these underlying…

Surprise-based learning allows agents to rapidly adapt to non-stationary stochastic environments characterized by sudden changes. We show that exact Bayesian inference in a hierarchical model gives rise to a surprise-modulated trade-off…

We develop a Nonparametric Empirical Bayes (NEB) framework for compound estimation in the discrete linear exponential family, which includes a wide class of discrete distributions frequently arising from modern big data applications. We…

Empirical Bayes estimators are based on minimizing the average risk with the hyper-parameters in the weighting function being estimated from observed data. The performance of an empirical Bayes estimator is typically evaluated by its mean…