Related papers: The Basic Reproduction Number for Petri Net Models…
In the last year many public health decisions were based on real-time monitoring the spread of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. For this one often considers the reproduction number which measures the amount of secondary cases produced by a…
Motivated by the question of optimal vaccine allocation strategies in heterogeneous population for epidemic models, we study various properties of the \emph{effective reproduction number}. In the simplest case, given a fixed, non-negative…
Nowcasting and forecasting of epidemic spreading rely on incidence series of reported cases to derive the fundamental epidemiological parameters for a given pathogen. Two relevant drawbacks for predictions are the unknown fractions of…
Incidence vs Cumulative Cases (ICC) curves are introduced and shown to provide a simple framework for parameter identification in the case of the most elementary epidemiological model, consisting of susceptible, infected, and removed…
We rigorously investigate the convergence of a new numerical method, recently proposed by the authors, to approximate the reproduction numbers of a large class of age-structured population models with finite age span. The method consists in…
Structured epidemic models can be formulated as first-order hyperbolic PDEs, where the "spatial" variables represent individual traits, called structures. For models with two structures, we propose a numerical technique to approximate…
We present an analysis of six deterministic models for epidemic spreading. The evolution of the number of individuals of each class is given by ordinary differential equations of the first order in time, which are set up by using the laws…
The dynamics of contact networks and epidemics of infectious diseases often occur on comparable time scales. Ignoring one of these time scales may provide an incomplete understanding of the population dynamics of the infection process. We…
Capturing the structured mixing within a population is key to the reliable projection of infectious disease dynamics and hence informed control. Both heterogeneity in the number of contacts and age-structured mixing have been repeatedly…
The dynamics of an SIS epidemic patch model with asymmetric connectivity matrix is analyzed. It is shown that the basic reproduction number $R_0$ is strictly decreasing with respect to the dispersal rate of the infected individuals, and the…
The novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) is a recently emerged human pathogen that has spread widely since January 2020. Initially, the basic reproductive number, R0, was estimated to be 2.2 to 2.7. Here we provide a new estimate of this quantity.…
In this article, we consider a dynamic epidemiology model for the spread of the COVID-19 infection. Starting from the classical SEIR model, the model is modified so as to better describe characteristic features of the underlying pathogen…
We present a series of SIR-network models, extended with a game-theoretic treatment of imitation dynamics which result from regular population mobility across residential and work areas and the ensuing interactions. Each considered…
This paper presents a new view of household epidemic models, where the interaction between the households is of mean field type. We thus obtain in the limit of infinitely many households a nonlinear Markov process solution of a McKean -…
We discuss the criticality in the stochastic SIR model for infectious diseases. We adopt the path-integral formalism for the propagation of infections among susceptible, infectious, and removed individuals, and perform the perturbative and…
We define data analyses to monitor a change in R, the average number of secondary cases caused by a typical infected individual. The input dataset consists of incident cases partitioned into outbreaks, each initiated from a single index…
Recent years have seen a large amount of interest in epidemics on networks as a way of representing the complex structure of contacts capable of spreading infections through the modern human population. The configuration model is a popular…
Insect outbreaks are biotic disturbances in forests and agroecosystems that cause economic and ecological damage. This phenomenon depends on a variety of biological and physical factors. The complexity and practical importance of the issue…
We study a multi-type SIR epidemic process among a heterogeneous population that interacts through a network. When we base social contact on a random graph with given vertex degrees, we give limit theorems on the fraction of infected…
In this paper, we study a simplified version of a West Nile virus model discussed by Lewis et al. [28], which was considered as a first approximation for the spatial spread of WNv. The basic reproduction number $R_0$ for the non-spatial…