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Conformal prediction (CP) provides model-agnostic uncertainty quantification with guaranteed coverage, but conventional methods often produce overly conservative uncertainty sets, especially in multi-dimensional settings. This limitation…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-02-12 Minxing Zheng , Shixiang Zhu

Automated AI classifiers should be able to defer the prediction to a human decision maker to ensure more accurate predictions. In this work, we jointly train a classifier with a rejector, which decides on each data point whether the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-04-12 Hussein Mozannar , Hunter Lang , Dennis Wei , Prasanna Sattigeri , Subhro Das , David Sontag

In this paper, we present a novel approach for conformal prediction (CP), in which we aim to identify a set of promising prediction candidates -- in place of a single prediction. This set is guaranteed to contain a correct answer with high…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-02-03 Adam Fisch , Tal Schuster , Tommi Jaakkola , Regina Barzilay

Large language models (LLMs) are empowering decision-making in several applications, including tool or API usage and answering multiple-choice questions (MCQs). However, incorrect outputs pose significant risks in high-stakes domains like…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-07-15 Harit Vishwakarma , Alan Mishler , Thomas Cook , Niccolò Dalmasso , Natraj Raman , Sumitra Ganesh

Foundation models often generate unreliable answers, while heuristic uncertainty estimators fail to fully distinguish correct from incorrect outputs, causing users to accept erroneous answers without any statistical guarantee. We address…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2026-05-27 Zhiyuan Wang , Aniri , Tianlong Chen , Yue Zhang , Heng Tao Shen , Xiaoshuang Shi , Kaidi Xu

Conformal prediction (CP) produces prediction regions with finite-sample, distribution free coverage guarantees, but its interpretation as a quantitative uncertainty tool is often left implicit. We develop a category-theoretic approach that…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-05-05 Michele Caprio

Conventional frequentist learning is known to yield poorly calibrated models that fail to reliably quantify the uncertainty of their decisions. Bayesian learning can improve calibration, but formal guarantees apply only under restrictive…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-10-07 Sangwoo Park , Kfir M. Cohen , Osvaldo Simeone

Conformal prediction (CP) is a framework to quantify uncertainty of machine learning classifiers including deep neural networks. Given a testing example and a trained classifier, CP produces a prediction set of candidate labels with a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-08-01 Subhankar Ghosh , Yuanjie Shi , Taha Belkhouja , Yan Yan , Jana Doppa , Brian Jones

Selective classification (or classification with a reject option) pairs a classifier with a selection function to determine whether or not a prediction should be accepted. This framework trades off coverage (probability of accepting a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-02-23 Andrea Pugnana , Salvatore Ruggieri

Conformal prediction (CP) is a method for constructing a prediction interval around the output of a fitted model, whose validity does not rely on the model being correct--the CP interval offers a coverage guarantee that is…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-04-17 Aabesh Bhattacharyya , Rina Foygel Barber

Conformal prediction (CP) is a promising uncertainty quantification framework which works as a wrapper around a black-box classifier to construct prediction sets (i.e., subset of candidate classes) with provable guarantees. However,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-10 Yuanjie Shi , Hooman Shahrokhi , Xuesong Jia , Xiongzhi Chen , Janardhan Rao Doppa , Yan Yan

Conformal predictions make it possible to define reliable and robust learning algorithms. But they are essentially a method for evaluating whether an algorithm is good enough to be used in practice. To define a reliable learning framework…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-03-18 Alberto Carlevaro , Teodoro Alamo Cantarero , Fabrizio Dabbene , Maurizio Mongelli

We consider the problem of selective prediction (also known as reject option) in deep neural networks, and introduce SelectiveNet, a deep neural architecture with an integrated reject option. Existing rejection mechanisms are based mostly…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-06-28 Yonatan Geifman , Ran El-Yaniv

Conformal Prediction (CP) is a powerful framework for constructing prediction sets with guaranteed coverage. However, recent studies have shown that integrating confidence calibration with CP can lead to a degradation in efficiency. In this…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-07-25 Rui Luo , Nicolo Colombo

Conformal prediction (CP), a distribution-free uncertainty quantification (UQ) framework, reliably provides valid predictive inference for black-box models. CP constructs prediction sets that contain the true output with a specified…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-03-12 Xiaofan Zhou , Baiting Chen , Yu Gui , Lu Cheng

In high-stakes scenarios, such as medical imaging applications, it is critical to equip the predictions of a regression model with reliable confidence intervals. Recently, Conformal Prediction (CP) has emerged as a powerful statistical…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-09-19 Yahav Cohen , Jacob Goldberger , Tom Tirer

In contrast to conventional (single-label) classification, the setting of multilabel classification (MLC) allows an instance to belong to several classes simultaneously. Thus, instead of selecting a single class label, predictions take the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-01-27 Vu-Linh Nguyen , Eyke Hüllermeier

Machine Learning (ML) models are widely used in high-stakes domains such as healthcare, where the reliability of predictions is critical. However, these models often fail to account for uncertainty, providing predictions even with low…

With the increasing use of Machine Learning (ML) algorithms in scientific research comes the need for reliable uncertainty quantification. When taking a measurement it is not enough to provide the result, we also have to declare how…

General Relativity and Quantum Cosmology · Physics 2025-05-09 Ann-Kristin Malz , Gregory Ashton , Nicolo Colombo

This paper studies $\ell_1$ regularization with high-dimensional features for support vector machines with a built-in reject option (meaning that the decision of classifying an observation can be withheld at a cost lower than that of…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2012-01-06 Marten Wegkamp , Ming Yuan
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