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When language models lack relevant knowledge for a given query, they frequently generate plausible responses that can be hallucinations, rather than admitting being agnostic about the answer. Retraining models to reward admitting ignorance…

In supervised learning, including regression and classification, conformal methods provide prediction sets for the outcome/label with finite sample coverage for any machine learning predictor. We consider here the case where such prediction…

Conformal prediction (CP) and its extension, conformal risk control (CRC), are established frameworks for quantifying uncertainty in supervised machine learning through formal guarantees. However, recent breakthroughs in artificial…

The problem of model selection is inevitable in an increasingly large number of applications involving partial theoretical knowledge and vast amounts of information, like in medicine, biology or economics. The associated techniques are…

This study introduces a significance testing-enhanced conformal prediction (CP) framework to improve trustworthiness of large language models (LLMs) in multiple-choice question answering (MCQA). While LLMs have been increasingly deployed in…

In supervised learning, we often face with ambiguous (A) samples that are difficult to label even by domain experts. In this paper, we consider a binary classification problem in the presence of such A samples. This problem is substantially…

Uncertainty estimates must be calibrated (i.e., accurate) and sharp (i.e., informative) in order to be useful. This has motivated a variety of methods for recalibration, which use held-out data to turn an uncalibrated model into a…

Deep Learning predictions with measurable confidence are increasingly desirable for real-world problems, especially in high-risk settings. The Conformal Prediction (CP) framework is a versatile solution that guarantees a maximum error rate…

Conformal prediction (CP) offers distribution-free uncertainty quantification for machine learning models, yet its interplay with fairness in downstream decision-making remains underexplored. Moving beyond CP as a standalone operation…

A complementary label (CL) simply indicates an incorrect class of an example, but learning with CLs results in multi-class classifiers that can predict the correct class. Unfortunately, the problem setting only allows a single CL for each…

Conformal risk control (CRC) is a recently proposed technique that applies post-hoc to a conventional point predictor to provide calibration guarantees. Generalizing conformal prediction (CP), with CRC, calibration is ensured for a set…

Correctly classifying adversarial examples is an essential but challenging requirement for safely deploying machine learning models. As reported in RobustBench, even the state-of-the-art adversarially trained models struggle to exceed 67%…

Conformal prediction is a non-parametric technique for constructing prediction intervals or sets from arbitrary predictive models under the assumption that the data is exchangeable. It is popular as it comes with theoretical guarantees on…

When machine learning systems meet real world applications, accuracy is only one of several requirements. In this paper, we assay a complementary perspective originating from the increasing availability of pre-trained and regularly…

When one observes a sequence of variables $(x_1, y_1), \ldots, (x_n, y_n)$, Conformal Prediction (CP) is a methodology that allows to estimate a confidence set for $y_{n+1}$ given $x_{n+1}$ by merely assuming that the distribution of the…

Deep neural networks have achieved remarkable success across a variety of tasks, yet they often suffer from unreliable probability estimates. As a result, they can be overconfident in their predictions. Conformal Prediction (CP) offers a…

Conformal Prediction (CP) is a powerful statistical machine learning tool to construct uncertainty sets with coverage guarantees, which has fueled its extensive adoption in generating prediction regions for decision-making tasks, e.g.,…

We study the performance of machine learning binary classification techniques in terms of error probabilities. The statistical test is based on the Data-Driven Decision Function (D3F), learned in the training phase, i.e., what is…

We study the problem of conditional predictive inference on multiple outcomes missing at random (MAR) -- or equivalently, under covariate shift. While the weighted conformal prediction offers a tool for inference under covariate shift with…

ML-based predictions are used to inform consequential decisions about individuals. How should we use predictions (e.g., risk of heart attack) to inform downstream binary classification decisions (e.g., undergoing a medical procedure)? When…