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Conformal prediction (CP) transforms any model's output into prediction sets guaranteed to include (cover) the true label. CP requires exchangeability, a relaxation of the i.i.d. assumption, to obtain a valid distribution-free coverage…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-07-15 Soroush H. Zargarbashi , Aleksandar Bojchevski

Machine-learning techniques are essential in modern collider research, yet their probabilistic outputs often lack calibrated uncertainty estimates and finite-sample guarantees, limiting their direct use in statistical inference and…

High Energy Physics - Phenomenology · Physics 2025-12-22 Jack Y. Araz , Michael Spannowsky

The deployment of safe and trustworthy machine learning systems, and particularly complex black box neural networks, in real-world applications requires reliable and certified guarantees on their performance. The conformal prediction…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2024-06-14 Paul Melki , Lionel Bombrun , Boubacar Diallo , Jérôme Dias , Jean-Pierre da Costa

In this paper, we focus on the problem of conformal prediction with conditional guarantees. Prior work has shown that it is impossible to construct nontrivial prediction sets with full conditional coverage guarantees. A wealth of research…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-04-29 Shayan Kiyani , George Pappas , Hamed Hassani

Conformal prediction (CP) is a wrapper around traditional machine learning models, giving coverage guarantees under the sole assumption of exchangeability; in classification problems, for a chosen significance level $\varepsilon$, CP…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-02-23 Javier Abad , Umang Bhatt , Adrian Weller , Giovanni Cherubin

Conformal prediction (CP) is a general framework to quantify the predictive uncertainty of machine learning models that uses a set prediction to include the true label with a valid probability. To align the uncertainty measured by CP,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-11-25 Xuesong Jia , Yuanjie Shi , Ziquan Liu , Yi Xu , Yan Yan

We develop a novel approach to tackle the common but challenging problem of conformal inference for missing data in machine learning, focusing on Missing at Random (MAR) data. We propose a new procedure Conformal prediction for Missing data…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-10-22 Wenlu Tang , Hongni Wang , Xingcai Zhou , Bei Jiang , Linglong Kong

Conformal prediction (CP) gives distribution-free coverage for modern vision and language models, but it is often forced to make a ranking decision from a single unstable nonconformity score. Standard CP uses one realization, while…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-25 Jiapeng Zeng , Yogesh Prabhu , Zhanpeng Zeng , Michael A. Newton , Vikas Singh

Learning with rejection (LWR) allows development of machine learning systems with the ability to discard low confidence decisions generated by a prediction model. That is, just like human experts, LWR allows machine models to abstain from…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-11-05 Amina Asif , Fayyaz ul Amir Afsar Minhas

Conformal Prediction (CP) allows to perform rigorous uncertainty quantification by constructing a prediction set $C(X)$ satisfying $\mathbb{P}(Y \in C(X))\geq 1-\alpha$ for a user-chosen $\alpha \in [0,1]$ by relying on calibration data…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-10-25 David Stutz , Abhijit Guha Roy , Tatiana Matejovicova , Patricia Strachan , Ali Taylan Cemgil , Arnaud Doucet

We investigate the problem of regression where one is allowed to abstain from predicting. We refer to this framework as regression with reject option as an extension of classification with reject option. In this context, we focus on the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-03-08 Christophe Denis , Mohamed Hebiri , Ahmed Zaoui

Uncertainty quantification is essential for deploying machine learning models in high-stakes domains such as scientific discovery and healthcare. Conformal Prediction (CP) provides finite-sample coverage guarantees under exchangeability, an…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-30 Siddhartha Laghuvarapu , Rohan Deb , Jimeng Sun

We develop a new approach to multi-label conformal prediction in which we aim to output a precise set of promising prediction candidates with a bounded number of incorrect answers. Standard conformal prediction provides the ability to adapt…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-02-16 Adam Fisch , Tal Schuster , Tommi Jaakkola , Regina Barzilay

Unlike the typical classification setting where each instance is associated with a single class, in multi-label learning each instance is associated with multiple classes simultaneously. Therefore the learning task in this setting is to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-11-30 Harris Papadopoulos

Conformal prediction (CP) is widely presented as distribution-free predictive inference with finite-sample marginal coverage under exchangeability. We argue that CP is best understood as a rank-calibrated descendant of the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-12-30 Jyotishka Datta , Nicholas G. Polson , Vadim Sokolov , Daniel Zantedeschi

The recently proposed Collaborative Metric Learning (CML) paradigm has aroused wide interest in the area of recommendation systems (RS) owing to its simplicity and effectiveness. Typically, the existing literature of CML depends largely on…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-06-24 Shilong Bao , Qianqian Xu , Zhiyong Yang , Xiaochun Cao , Qingming Huang

Binary classification is highly used in credit scoring in the estimation of probability of default. The validation of such predictive models is based both on rank ability, and also on calibration (i.e. how accurately the probabilities…

Econometrics · Economics 2017-10-25 Pedro G. Fonseca , Hugo D. Lopes

In classification with a reject option, the classifier is allowed in uncertain cases to abstain from prediction. The classical cost-based model of a reject option classifier requires the cost of rejection to be defined explicitly. An…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-02-01 V. Franc , D. Prusa , V. Voracek

Conformal Prediction (CP) controls the prediction uncertainty of classification systems by producing a small prediction set, ensuring a predetermined probability that the true class lies within this set. This is commonly done by defining a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-08-14 Coby Penso , Jacob Goldberger , Ethan Fetaya

Learning with rejection is an important framework that can refrain from making predictions to avoid critical mispredictions by balancing between prediction and rejection. Previous studies on cost-based rejection only focused on the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-11-09 Xin Cheng , Yuzhou Cao , Haobo Wang , Hongxin Wei , Bo An , Lei Feng