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Uncertainty quantification of causal effects is crucial for safety-critical applications such as personalized medicine. A powerful approach for this is conformal prediction, which has several practical benefits due to model-agnostic…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-04 Maresa Schröder , Dennis Frauen , Jonas Schweisthal , Konstantin Heß , Valentyn Melnychuk , Stefan Feuerriegel

This paper introduces a conformal inference method to evaluate uncertainty in classification by generating prediction sets with valid coverage conditional on adaptively chosen features. These features are carefully selected to reflect…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-10-31 Yanfei Zhou , Matteo Sesia

We present a new method for generating confidence sets within the split conformal prediction framework. Our method performs a trainable transformation of any given conformity score to improve conditional coverage while ensuring exact…

This study explores current limitations of learned image captioning evaluation metrics, specifically the lack of granular assessments for errors within captions, and the reliance on single-point quality estimates without considering…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-06-03 Gonçalo Gomes , Bruno Martins , Chrysoula Zerva

There is a need to build intelligence in operating machinery and use data analysis on monitored signals in order to quantify the health of the operating system and self-diagnose any initiations of fault. Built-in control procedures can…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2020-06-18 G. Zhang , A. R. Singer , N. Vlahopoulos

Multi-modality cardiac imaging plays a key role in the management of patients with cardiovascular diseases. It allows a combination of complementary anatomical, morphological and functional information, increases diagnosis accuracy, and…

Image and Video Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2022-08-30 Lei Li , Wangbin Ding , Liqun Huang , Xiahai Zhuang , Vicente Grau

Conformal prediction, a post-hoc, distribution-free, finite-sample method of uncertainty quantification that offers formal coverage guarantees under the assumption of data exchangeability. Unfortunately, the resulting uncertainty regions…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-21 Nikolaos Bousias , Lars Lindemann , George Pappas

Conformal prediction methods are statistical tools designed to quantify uncertainty and generate predictive sets with guaranteed coverage probabilities. This work introduces an innovative refinement to these methods for classification…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-12-04 Jean-Baptiste Fermanian , Mohamed Hebiri , Joseph Salmon

Conformal prediction is widely used to equip black-box machine learning models with uncertainty quantification, offering formal coverage guarantees under exchangeable data. However, these guarantees fail when faced with subpopulation…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-11-10 Nien-Shao Wang , Duygu Nur Yaldiz , Yavuz Faruk Bakman , Sai Praneeth Karimireddy

This study proposes an efficient neural network with convolutional layers to classify significantly class-imbalanced clinical data. The data are curated from the National Health and Nutritional Examination Survey (NHANES) with the goal of…

Quantitative Methods · Quantitative Biology 2020-04-24 Aniruddha Dutta , Tamal Batabyal , Meheli Basu , Scott T. Acton

Conformal prediction provides distribution-free coverage guarantees, but in many-class classification it may still under-cover specific classes or subpopulations, preventing safe deployment in high-stakes applications. We propose Cluster…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-26 Tomer Lavi , Bracha Shapira , Nadav Rappoport

Conformal prediction is often calibrated with a single pooled threshold, but this can hide cross-group heterogeneity in score distributions and distort group-wise coverage. We study this phenomenon through the population score distributions…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-05-18 Ziang Gao , Pengqi Liu , Archer Yi Yang , Mouloud Belbahri , Jesse C. Cresswell , Masoud Asgharian

The automated analysis of medical time series, such as the electrocardiogram (ECG), electroencephalogram (EEG), pulse oximetry, etc, has the potential to serve as a valuable tool for diagnostic decisions, allowing for remote monitoring of…

We consider conformal prediction for multivariate data and focus on hierarchical data, where some components are linear combinations of others. Intuitively, the hierarchical structure can be leveraged to reduce the size of prediction…

The use of mathematical models to make predictions about tumor growth and response to treatment has become increasingly more prevalent in the clinical setting. The level of complexity within these models ranges broadly, and the calibration…

Quantitative Methods · Quantitative Biology 2021-12-28 Allison L. Lewis , Kathleen M. Storey , Heyrim Cho , Anna C. Zittle

Due to the imbalanced and limited data, semi-supervised medical image segmentation methods often fail to produce superior performance for some specific tailed classes. Inadequate training for those particular classes could introduce more…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2022-09-02 Hritam Basak , Sagnik Ghosal , Ram Sarkar

While existing depression prediction methods based on deep learning show promise, their practical application is hindered by the lack of trustworthiness, as these deep models are often deployed as black box models, leaving us uncertain on…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-08-28 Yonghong Li , Xiuzhuang Zhou

Conformal Prediction (CP) is a distribution-free method for constructing prediction sets with marginal finite-sample coverage guarantees, making it a suitable framework for reliable uncertainty quantification in safety-critical object…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2026-05-11 Christopher Ries , Moussa Kassem Sbeyti , Nicolas Bianco , Nadja Klein

Conformal prediction constructs a confidence set for an unobserved response of a feature vector based on previous identically distributed and exchangeable observations of responses and features. It has a coverage guarantee at any nominal…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-12-08 Eugene Ndiaye , Ichiro Takeuchi

Conformalized quantile regression is a procedure that inherits the advantages of conformal prediction and quantile regression. That is, we use quantile regression to estimate the true conditional quantile and then apply a conformal step on…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-11-02 Martim Sousa , Ana Maria Tomé , José Moreira
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