Related papers: Approximate Probabilistic Bisimulation for Continu…

This paper considers maximum likelihood (ML) estimation in a large class of models with hidden Markov regimes. We investigate consistency of the ML estimator and local asymptotic normality for the models under general conditions which allow…

For the model of probabilistic labelled transition systems that allow for the co-existence of nondeterminism and probabilities, we present two notions of bisimulation metrics: one is state-based and the other is distribution-based. We…

This paper introduces a framework for speeding up Bayesian inference conducted in presence of large datasets. We design a Markov chain whose transition kernel uses an (unknown) fraction of (fixed size) of the available data that is randomly…

We propose a new approach for estimating the finite dimensional transition matrix of a Markov chain using a large number of independent sample paths observed at random times. The sample paths may be observed as few as two times, and the…

A labelled Markov decision process (MDP) is a labelled Markov chain with nondeterminism; i.e., together with a strategy a labelled MDP induces a labelled Markov chain. The model is related to interval Markov chains. Motivated by…

Stochastic processes find applications in modelling systems in a variety of disciplines. A large number of stochastic models considered are Markovian in nature. It is often observed that higher order Markov processes can model the data…

This paper advocates proximal Markov Chain Monte Carlo (ProxMCMC) as a flexible and general Bayesian inference framework for constrained or regularized estimation. Originally introduced in the Bayesian imaging literature, ProxMCMC employs…

Synthetic likelihood (SL) is a strategy for parameter inference when the likelihood function is analytically or computationally intractable. In SL, the likelihood function of the data is replaced by a multivariate Gaussian density over…

We propose a data-driven method to learn the time-dependent probability density of a multivariate stochastic process from sample paths, assuming that the initial probability density is known and can be evaluated. Our method uses a novel…

In a first part, we prove Bernstein-type deviation inequalities for bifurcating Markov chains (BMC) under a geometric ergodicity assumption, completing former results of Guyon and Bitseki Penda, Djellout and Guillin. These preliminary…

Model checking probabilistic CTL properties of Markov decision processes with convex uncertainties has been recently investigated by Puggelli et al. Such model checking algorithms typically suffer from the state space explosion. In this…

A rescaled Markov chain converges uniformly in probability to the solution of an ordinary differential equation, under carefully specified assumptions. The presentation is much simpler than those in the outside literature. The result may be…

There has been an increasing demand for formal methods in the design process of safety-critical synthetic genetic circuits. Probabilistic model checking techniques have demonstrated significant potential in analyzing the intrinsic…

A current challenge for many Bayesian analyses is determining when to terminate high-dimensional Markov chain Monte Carlo simulations. To this end, we propose using an automated sequential stopping procedure that terminates the simulation…

An important question for a probabilistic program is whether the probability mass of all its diverging runs is zero, that is that it terminates "almost surely". Proving that can be hard, and this paper presents a new method for doing so; it…

This paper deals with control of partially observable discrete-time stochastic systems. It introduces and studies Markov Decision Processes with Incomplete Information and with semi-uniform Feller transition probabilities. The important…

Inference for high-dimensional hidden Markov models is challenging due to the exponential-in-dimension computational cost of calculating the likelihood. To address this issue, we introduce an innovative composite likelihood approach called…

The decreasing Markov chain on \{1,2,3, \ldots\} with transition probabilities $p(j,j-i) \propto 1/i$ arises as a key component of the analysis of the beta-splitting random tree model. We give a direct and almost self-contained…

We introduce a class of continuous-time bivariate phase-type distributions for modeling dependencies from common shocks. The construction uses continuous-time Markov processes that evolve identically until an internal common-shock event,…

We consider Markov chains on the space of (countable) partitions of the interval $[0,1]$, obtained first by size biased sampling twice (allowing repetitions) and then merging the parts with probability $\beta_m$ (if the sampled parts are…