Related papers: Approximate Probabilistic Bisimulation for Continu…
Simulation models often lack tractable likelihood functions, making likelihood-free inference methods indispensable. Approximate Bayesian computation generates likelihood-free posterior samples by comparing simulated and observed data…
In this paper a method based on a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm is proposed to compute the probability of a rare event. The conditional distribution of the underlying process given that the rare event occurs has the probability…
We tackle the problem of establishing the soundness of approximate bisimilarity with respect to PCTL and its relaxed semantics. To this purpose, we consider a notion of bisimilarity inspired by the one introduced by Desharnais, Laviolette,…
A new class of nonparametric prior distributions, termed Beta-Binomial stick-breaking process, is proposed. By allowing the underlying length random variables to be dependent through a Beta marginals Markov chain, an appealing discrete…
Molecular simulations can provide microscopic insight into the physical and chemical driving forces of complex molecular processes. Despite continued advancement of simulation methodology, model errors may lead to inconsistencies between…
Delayed-acceptance Markov chain Monte Carlo (DA-MCMC) samples from a probability distribution via a two-stages version of the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm, by combining the target distribution with a "surrogate" (i.e. an approximate and…
We provide a novel method for sensitivity analysis of parametric robust Markov chains. These models incorporate parameters and sets of probability distributions to alleviate the often unrealistic assumption that precise probabilities are…
Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) and Likelihood Ratio Test (LRT) are widely used methods for estimating the transition probability matrix in Markov chains and identifying significant relationships between transitions, such as equality.…
Particle Markov Chain Monte Carlo (PMCMC) is a general computational approach to Bayesian inference for general state space models. Our article scales up PMCMC in terms of the number of observations and parameters by generating the…
The aim of this paper is to approximate a finite-state Markov process by another process with fewer states, called herein the approximating process. The approximation problem is formulated using two different methods. The first method,…
The computer revolution has been driven by a sustained increase of computational speed of approximately one order of magnitude (a factor of ten) every five years since about 1950. In natural sciences this has led to a continuous increase of…
Although the specification of bivariate probability models using a collection of assumed conditional distributions is not a novel concept, it has received considerable attention in the last decade. In this study, a bivariate…
The aim of this study is to devise numerical methods for dealing with very high-dimensional Bermudan-style derivatives. For such problems, we quickly see that we can at best hope for price bounds, and we can only use a simulation approach.…
We extend the Dirichlet principle to non-reversible Markov processes on countable state spaces. We present two variational formulas for the solution of the Poisson equation or, equivalently, for the capacity between two disjoint sets. As an…
We consider conditional tests for non-negative discrete exponential families. We develop two Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms which allow us to sample from the conditional space and to perform approximated tests. The first…
Parametric Markov chains have been introduced as a model for families of stochastic systems that rely on the same graph structure, but differ in the concrete transition probabilities. The latter are specified by polynomial constraints for…
In the following article we provide an exposition of exact computational methods to perform parameter inference from partially observed network models. In particular, we consider the duplication attachment (DA) model which has a likelihood…
A novel class of non-reversible Markov chain Monte Carlo schemes relying on continuous-time piecewise-deterministic Markov Processes has recently emerged. In these algorithms, the state of the Markov process evolves according to a…
Continuous-time Markov processes over finite state-spaces are widely used to model dynamical processes in many fields of natural and social science. Here, we introduce an maximum likelihood estimator for constructing such models from data…
Contextual Markov decision processes (CMDPs) describe a class of reinforcement learning problems in which the transition kernels and reward functions can change over time with different MDPs indexed by a context variable. While CMDPs serve…