Related papers: Approximate Probabilistic Bisimulation for Continu…
The probabilistic description of the time evolution of a physical system can take two conceptually distinct forms: a trajectory of probabilities, which specifies how probabilities evolve over time, and a probability on trajectories, which…
Many behavioural equivalences or preorders for probabilistic processes involve a lifting operation that turns a relation on states into a relation on distributions of states. We show that several existing proposals for lifting relations can…
With larger data at their disposal, scientists are emboldened to tackle complex questions that require sophisticated statistical models. It is not unusual for the latter to have likelihood functions that elude analytical formulations. Even…
We here consider the subset simulation method which approaches a failure event using a decreasing sequence of nested intermediate failure events. The method resembles importance sampling, which actively explores a probability space by…
Doubly intractable distributions arise in many settings, for example in Markov models for point processes and exponential random graph models for networks. Bayesian inference for these models is challenging because they involve intractable…
Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulations are commonly employed for estimating features of a target distribution, particularly for Bayesian inference. A fundamental challenge is determining when these simulations should stop. We consider…
The probabilistic bisimilarity distance of Deng et al. has been proposed as a robust quantitative generalization of Segala and Lynch's probabilistic bisimilarity for probabilistic automata. In this paper, we present a characterization of…
The random numbers driving Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation are usually modeled as independent U(0,1) random variables. Tribble [Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms using completely uniformly distributed driving sequences (2007)…
Performing Bayesian inference via Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) can be exceedingly expensive when posterior evaluations invoke the evaluation of a computationally expensive model, such as a system of partial differential equations. In…
We propose a sequential Markov chain Monte Carlo (SMCMC) algorithm to sample from a sequence of probability distributions, corresponding to posterior distributions at different times in on-line applications. SMCMC proceeds as in usual MCMC…
In this note we derive the exact probability that a specific state in a two-state Markov chain is visited exactly $k$ times after $N$ transitions. We provide a closed-form solution for $\mathbb{P}(N_l = k \mid N)$, considering initial state…
Chernoff bounds are a powerful application of the Markov inequality to produce strong bounds on the tails of probability distributions. They are often used to bound the tail probabilities of sums of Poisson trials, or in regression to…
In this paper, we present new Poisson-type deviation inequalities for continuous-time Markov chains whose Wasserstein curvature or $\Gamma$-curvature is bounded below. Although these two curvatures are equivalent for Brownian motion on…
Consider a Markov chain $\{X_n\}_{n\ge 0}$ with an ergodic probability measure $\pi$. Let $\Psi$ a function on the state space of the chain, with $\alpha$-tails with respect to $\pi$, $\alpha\in (0,2)$. We find sufficient conditions on the…
Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) requires to evaluate the full data likelihood at different parameter values iteratively and is often computationally infeasible for large data sets. In this paper, we propose to approximate the log-likelihood…
We examine two analytical characterisation of the metastable behavior of a Markov chain. The first one expressed in terms of its transition probabilities, and the second one in terms of its large deviations rate functional. Consider a…
We consider the problem of estimating the asymptotic variance of a function defined on a Markov chain, an important step for statistical inference of the stationary mean. We design a novel recursive estimator that requires $O(1)$…
Bayesian nonparametric inferential procedures based on Markov chain Monte Carlo marginal methods typically yield point estimates in the form of posterior expectations. Though very useful and easy to implement in a variety of statistical…
Motivated by the problem of exploring discrete but very complex state spaces in Bayesian models, we propose a novel Markov Chain Monte Carlo search algorithm: the taxicab sampler. We describe the construction of this sampler and discuss how…
Parametric Markov chains (pMC) are used to model probabilistic systems with unknown or partially known probabilities. Although (universal) pMC verification for reachability properties is known to be coETR-complete, there have been efforts…