Related papers: Measuring the Euro Area Output Gap
Power-Law inflation with scale factor $a \propto t^m$ is investigated in the context of warm inflation. The treatment is performed in the weak and strong dissipation limits. In addition, we discuss the three common cases for the thermal…
In 2018, allowance prices in the EU Emission Trading Scheme (EU ETS) experienced a run-up from persistently low levels in previous years. Regulators attribute this to a comprehensive reform in the same year, and are confident the new price…
This paper investigates and compares currency substitution between the currencies of Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries and the euro. In addition, we develop a model with microeconomic foundations, which identifies difference…
The economic shocks that followed the COVID-19 pandemic have brought to light the difficulty, both for academics and policy makers, of describing and predicting the dynamics of inflation. This paper offers an alternative modelling approach.…
The emerging system at the European level can be conceptualized as a pattern of relations among member states that tends to be reproduced despite disturbances in individual trajectories. The Markov property is used as an indicator of…
The European Union Emissions Trading System (EU ETS), the world's first and largest cap-and-trade carbon market, is a cornerstone of EU climate policy. This study provides a comprehensive empirical analysis of the EU carbon market's…
During the last two years, Europe has been facing a debt crisis, and Greece has been at its center. In response to the crisis, drastic actions have been taken, including the halving of Greek debt. Policy makers acted because interest rates…
The main goal of the paper is to extract the aggregate demand and aggregate supply shocks in Greece, Ireland, Italy and Portugal, as well as to examine the correlation among the two types of shocks. The decomposition of the shocks was…
We use principle component analysis (PCA) of cross correlations in European government bonds and European stocks to investigate the systemic risk contained in the European economy. We tackle the task to visualize the evolution of risk,…
Inflation is one of the most important economic indicators closely watched by both public institutions and private agents. This study compares the performance of a traditional econometric model, Mixed Data Sampling regression, with one of…
The fixed-event forecasting setup is common in economic policy. It involves a sequence of forecasts of the same (`fixed') predictand, so that the difficulty of the forecasting problem decreases over time. Fixed-event point forecasts are…
Economic model predictive control has been proposed as a means for solving the unit loading and unit allocation problem in multi-chiller cooling plants. The adjective economic stems from the use of financial cost due to electricity…
In Europe, Germany is taking the lead in the switch from the conventional to renewable energy. This poses new challenges as wind and solar energy are fundamentally intermittent, weather-dependent and less predictable. It is therefore of…
This paper develops a methodology for tracking in real time the impact of shocks (such as natural disasters, financial crises or pandemics) on gross domestic product (GDP) by analyzing high-frequency electricity market data. As an…
Many studies have shown that there are good reasons to claim very low predictability of currency nevertheless, the deviations from true randomness exist which have potential predictive and prognostic power [J.James, Quantitative finance 3…
In models of inflation obtained from string compactification, moduli vacuum misalignment leads to an epoch in the post-inflationary history of the universe when the energy density is dominated by cold moduli particles. This effect leads to…
This paper evaluates the dynamic response of economic activity to shocks in uncertainty as percieved by agents.The study focuses on the comparison between the perception of economic uncertainty by manufacturers and consumers.Since…
A well known behavior of EUV light curves of discrete coronal loops is that the peak intensities of cooler channels or spectral lines are reached at progressively later times than hotter channels. This time lag is understood to be the…
The large hierarchy between the Planck scale and the weak scale can be explained by the dynamical breaking of supersymmetry in strongly coupled gauge theories. Similarly, the hierarchy between the Planck scale and the energy scale of…
The recent energy crisis starting in 2021 led to record-high gas, coal, carbon and power prices, with electricity reaching up to 40 times the pre-crisis average. This had dramatic consequences for operational and risk management prompting…