Related papers: Measuring the Euro Area Output Gap
The empirical literature provides mixed results on the relationship between inflation and unemployment, therefore, there is no consensus on validity and stability of the Phillips Curve. It also seems to be closely related with…
Researchers and electricity sector practitioners frequently require the supply curve of electricity markets and the price elasticity of supply for purposes such as price forecasting, policy analyses or market power assessment. It is common…
The European Power Exchange has introduced day-ahead auctions and continuous trading spot markets to facilitate the insertion of renewable electricity. These markets are designed to balance excess or lack of power in short time periods,…
The analysis of dollar inflation performed by the authors through the approximation of empirical data for 1913-2012 with a power-law function with an accelerating log-periodic oscillation superimposed over it has made it possible to detect…
The degree of convergence of the business cycles of the economies of the European Union is a key policy issue. In particular, a substantial degree of convergence is needed if the European Central Bank is to be capable of setting a monetary…
Financial market volatility is a crucial factor for investment planning, option pricing, and financial market regulation, and technology is widely recognized as a key driver of economic growth. In this project, we investigate the…
Most of the analytical techniques used in the business cycle synchronisation literature rely upon the estimation of an empirical correlation matrix of time series data of macroeconomic aggregates, real GDP usually being the key variable.…
The European Credit Research Institute Research Report 2013 identifies Households debt "rapid increase and abrupt retrenchment" among the causes of macroeconomic instability in the European Union after 2008. In our research: i) we accessed…
We study the prices of European Emission Allowances (EUA), whereby we analyze their uncertainty and dependencies on related energy prices (natural gas, coal, and oil). We propose a probabilistic multivariate conditional time series model…
The rich countries of Western Europe and its citizens benefited during at least the last 30 years from an extraordinary stable electricity grid. This stability was achieved by the european grid system and a large flexible and reliable spare…
This paper introduces a new specification for the nonparametric production-frontier based on Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) when dealing with decision-making units whose economic performances are correlated with those of the neighbors…
This paper examines the evolution of business and consumer uncertainty amid the coronavirus pandemic in 32 European countries and the European Union (EU).Since uncertainty is not directly observable, we approximate it using the geometric…
The rapidly increasing availability of large amounts of granular financial data, paired with the advances of big data related technologies induces the need of suitable analytics that can represent and extract meaningful information from…
Based on the quarterly data from 26 advanced economies (AEs) and 18 emerging market economies (EMs) over the past two decades, this paper estimates the short- and medium-term impacts of financial cycles on the duration and amplitude of…
Two decades of research on the euro's trade effects have produced estimates ranging from 4% to 30%, with no consensus on the magnitude. We find evidence that this divergence may reflect genuine heterogeneity in the euro's trade effect…
In a globalised world, inflation in a given country may be becoming less responsive to domestic economic activity, while being increasingly determined by international conditions. Consequently, understanding the international sources of…
Last year we argued that if slow-roll inflation followed the decay of a false vacuum in a large landscape, the steepening of the scalar potential between the inflationary plateau and the barrier generically leads to a potentially observable…
This paper proposes an empirical test of financial contagion in European equity markets during the tumultuous period of 2008-2011. Our analysis shows that traditional GARCH and Gaussian stochastic-volatility models are unable to explain two…
Italy and the Eurozone are heading in the year 2012 into a financial depression of unprecedented magnitude, with a forthcoming multitude of often contradictory public economic and financial stability emergency interventions whose ultimate…
This study presents a computational and theoretical framework inspired by thermodynamic principles to analyze the dynamics of economic inflation within adiabatic and non-adiabatic systems. In a framework referred to as developmental…