Related papers: Measuring the Euro Area Output Gap
Forecasting electricity prices is a challenging task and an active area of research since the 1990s and the deregulation of the traditionally monopolistic and government-controlled power sectors. Although it aims at predicting both spot and…
The power-grid frequency reflects the balance between electricity supply and demand. Measuring the frequency and its variations allows monitoring of the power balance in the system and, thus, the grid stability. In addition, gaining insight…
In this paper, we investigate the effectiveness of conventional and unconventional monetary policy measures by the European Central Bank (ECB) conditional on the prevailing level of uncertainty. To obtain exogenous variation in central bank…
We provide novel systematic cross-country evidence that the link between domestic labour markets and CPI inflation has weakened considerably in advanced economies during recent decades. The central estimate is that the short-run…
How much knowledge is there in an economy? In recent years, data on the mix of products that countries export has been used to construct measures of economic complexity that estimate the knowledge available in an economy and predict future…
We propose two specifications of a real-time mixed-frequency semi-structural time series model for evaluating the output potential, output gap, Phillips curve, and Okun's law for the US. The baseline model uses minimal theory-based…
The paper applies some recent developments of network analysis in order to perform a comparative study of EU countries in relation with the fluctuations of some macroeconomic indicators. The statistical distances between countries,…
Modern macroeconomic theories were unable to foresee the last Great Recession and could neither predict its prolonged duration nor the recovery rate. They are based on supply-demand equilibria that do not exist during recessionary shocks.…
The large variability of renewable power sources is a central challenge in the transition to a sustainable energy system. Electricity markets are central for the coordination of electric power generation. These markets rely evermore on…
Do labor market policies initiated in periods of loose monetary policy yield different outcomes from those introduced when monetary tightening prevails? Using data from 11 euro-area members up to 2010 -- and extending to 17 countries up to…
This paper investigates the impact of banking competition on interest rates for household consumption loans in the Euro Area from 2014 to 2020. Utilizing a panel data regression approach, we analyze how various factors, including local…
We propose a non-linear state-space model to examine the relationship between CO$_2$ emissions, energy sources, and macroeconomic activity, using data from 1971 to 2019. CO$_2$ emissions are modeled as a weighted sum of fossil fuel use,…
Consumption-based carbon emission measures aim to account for emissions associated with power transmission from distant regions, as opposed to measures which only consider local power generation. Outlining key differences between two…
Accurate electricity demand forecasting is crucial to meet energy security and efficiency, especially when relying on intermittent renewable energy sources. Recently, massive savings have been observed in Europe, following an unprecedented…
We introduce When Alpha Disappears, a paired evaluation benchmark for diagnosing decision-time leakage in financial machine-learning backtests. Rather than treating leakage as a binary property, the benchmark estimates protocol-induced…
Network analysis of inter-industry payment flows reveals structural economic relationships invisible to traditional bilateral measurement approaches, with significant implications for real-time economic monitoring. Analysing 532,346 UK…
Warning signs about the developing economic crisis in Greece were present in the growth rate of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and in the growth of the GDP well before the economic collapse. The growth rate was strongly unstable. On…
How a shock to an individual sector propagates to the prices of other sectors and aggregates to GDP depends on how easily sectoral goods can be substituted in production, which is determined by the intermediate input substitution…
The electricity market is a very peculiar market due to the large variety of phenomena that can affect the spot price. However, this market still shows many typical features of other speculative (commodity) markets like, for instance, data…
To adequately constrain the frequency of energy deposition in active region cores in the solar corona, systematic comparisons between detailed models and observational data are needed. In this paper, we describe a pipeline for forward…