Related papers: Measuring the Euro Area Output Gap
This paper develops a dynamic factor model that uses euro area (EA) country-specific information on output and inflation to estimate an area-wide measure of the output gap. Our model assumes that output and inflation can be decomposed into…
In the late 90's, after severe financial and economic crisis, accompanied by inflation and exchange rate instability, Eastern Europe emerged into two groups of countries with radically contrasting monetary regimes (Currency Boards and…
This research aims to provide an explanatory analyses of the business cycles divergence between Euro Area and Romania, respectively its drivers, since the synchronisation of output-gaps is one of the most important topic in the context of a…
We introduce EA-MD-QD, a new publicly available dataset comprising 1136 macroeconomic time series for the euro area (EA) and its ten largest member countries observed at monthly or quarterly frequency. Since January 2024, EA-MD-QD has been…
In this paper, we forecast euro area inflation and its main components using an econometric model which exploits a massive number of time series on survey expectations for the European Commission's Business and Consumer Survey. To make…
The aim of the present article is to offer a strictly mathematical, statistical treatment of the current account balances in EU and in the Eurozone. Based on Eurostat data, an overview of the total and annual balances is first made for…
Robust inflation measures gauge inflation behavior by excluding volatile expenditure categories from headline inflation. We evaluate the forecasting performance of a wide set of such measures between 1970 and 2024, including core, median,…
We analyse economic growth vulnerability of the four largest Euro Area (EA) countries under stressed macroeconomic and financial conditions. Vulnerability, measured as a lower quantile of the growth distribution conditional on EA-wide and…
The process of European integration resulted in a marked increase in transnational economic flows, yet regional inequalities along many developmental indicators remain. We analyze the unevenness of European economies with respect to the…
We model the rate of inflation and unemployment in Austria since the early 1960s within the Phillips/Fisher framework. The change in labour force is the driving force representing economic activity in the Phillips curve. For Austria, this…
We use a FAVAR model with proxy variables and sign restrictions to investigate the role of the euro area's common output and inflation cycles in the transmission of monetary policy shocks. Our findings indicate that common cycles explain…
This paper explores the relationship between economic growth and CO$_2$ emissions across European regions from 1990 to 2022, specifically concerning the dynamics of emissions growth rates through different phases of the European Union…
During the last decades particular effort has been directed towards understanding and predicting the relevant state of the business cycle with the objective of decomposing permanent shocks from those having only a transitory impact on real…
Using an analog of the boundary element method in engineering and science, we analyze and model unemployment rate in Austria, Italy, the Netherlands, Sweden, Switzerland, and the United States as a function of inflation and the change in…
In this paper we estimate a Bayesian vector autoregressive model with factor stochastic volatility in the error term to assess the effects of an uncertainty shock in the Euro area. This allows us to treat macroeconomic uncertainty as a…
This study analyzes public debts and deficits between European countries. The statistical evidence here seems in general to reveal that sovereign debts and government deficits of countries within European Monetary Unification-in average-…
This paper examines the degree of integration at euro area financial markets. To that end, we estimate overall and country-specific integration indices based on a panel vector-autoregression with factor stochastic volatility. Our results…
Due to major shifts in European energy supply, a structural change can be observed in Austrian electricity spot price data starting from the second quarter of the year 2021 onward. In this work we study the performance of two different…
Timely monetary policy decision-making requires timely core inflation measures. We create a new core inflation series that is explicitly designed to succeed at that goal. Precisely, we introduce the Assemblage Regression, a generalized…
Several studies have established the predictive power of the yield curve in terms of real economic activity. In this paper we use data for a variety of E.U. countries: both EMU (Germany, France, Italy) and non-EMU members (Sweden and the…