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This article shows that increasing the observation variance at small scales can reduce the ensemble size required to avoid collapse in particle filtering of spatially-extended dynamics and improve the resulting uncertainty quantification at…

Applications · Statistics 2018-08-15 Gregor Robinson , Ian Grooms , William Kleiber

Given an unnormalized target distribution we want to obtain approximate samples from it and a tight lower bound on its (log) normalization constant log Z. Annealed Importance Sampling (AIS) with Hamiltonian MCMC is a powerful method that…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-11-02 Tomas Geffner , Justin Domke

This paper presents a parameter scan technique for BSM signal models based on normalizing flow. Normalizing flow is a type of deep learning model that transforms a simple probability distribution into a complex probability distribution as…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2024-09-23 Masahiko Saito , Masahiro Morinaga , Tomoe Kishimoto , Junichi Tanaka

Data assimilation (DA) for compressible flows with shocks is challenging because many classical DA methods generate spurious oscillations and nonphysical features near uncertain shocks. We focus here on the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF). We…

Ensembles are a straightforward, remarkably effective method for improving the accuracy,calibration, and robustness of models on classification tasks; yet, the reasons that underlie their success remain an active area of research. We build…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-06-22 Neha Gupta , Jamie Smith , Ben Adlam , Zelda Mariet

Stochastic equations play an important role in computational science, due to their ability to treat a wide variety of complex statistical problems. However, current algorithms are strongly limited by their sampling variance, which scales…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2017-01-04 Bogdan Opanchuk , Simon Kiesewetter , Peter D. Drummond

The selective frequency damping (SFD) method is an alternative to classical Newton's method to obtain unstable steady-state solutions of dynamical systems. However this method has two main limitations: it does not converge for arbitrary…

Fluid Dynamics · Physics 2015-10-28 Bastien E. Jordi , Colin J. Cotter , Spencer J. Sherwin

The generative paradigm has become increasingly important in machine learning and deep learning models. Among popular generative models are normalizing flows, which enable exact likelihood estimation by transforming a base distribution…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-03-18 Naoufal El Bekri , Lucas Drumetz , Franck Vermet

Scalable sampling of molecular states in thermodynamic equilibrium is a long-standing challenge in statistical physics. Boltzmann generators tackle this problem by pairing normalizing flows with importance sampling to obtain uncorrelated…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-01-21 Charlie B. Tan , Avishek Joey Bose , Chen Lin , Leon Klein , Michael M. Bronstein , Alexander Tong

Catastrophic forgetting (CF) happens whenever a neural network overwrites past knowledge while being trained on new tasks. Common techniques to handle CF include regularization of the weights (using, e.g., their importance on past tasks),…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-08-06 Jary Pomponi , Simone Scardapane , Aurelio Uncini

Sampling from unnormalised discrete distributions is a fundamental problem across various domains. While Markov chain Monte Carlo offers a principled approach, it often suffers from slow mixing and poor convergence. In this paper, we…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-23 Zijing Ou , Ruixiang Zhang , Yingzhen Li

Adaptive Monte Carlo methods are very efficient techniques designed to tune simulation estimators on-line. In this work, we present an alternative to stochastic approximation to tune the optimal change of measure in the context of…

Probability · Mathematics 2009-10-23 Benjamin Jourdain , Jérôme Lelong

In this paper, we explore the potential of generative machine learning models as an alternative to the computationally expensive Monte Carlo (MC) simulations commonly used by the Large Hadron Collider (LHC) experiments. Our objective is to…

High Energy Physics - Experiment · Physics 2023-11-21 Allison Xu , Shuo Han , Xiangyang Ju , Haichen Wang

In this paper, we propose an approach to effectively accelerating the computation of continuous normalizing flow (CNF), which has been proven to be a powerful tool for the tasks such as variational inference and density estimation. The…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-01-28 Han-Hsien Huang , Mi-Yen Yeh

Sequential Monte Carlo Samplers are a class of stochastic algorithms for Monte Carlo integral estimation w.r.t. probability distributions, which combine elements of Markov chain Monte Carlo methods and importance sampling/resampling…

Probability · Mathematics 2007-05-23 Andreas Eberle , Carlo Marinelli

Conditional Normalizing Flows (CNFs) are flexible generative models capable of representing complicated distributions with high dimensionality and large interdimensional correlations, making them appealing for structured output learning.…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2023-09-06 Mohsen Zand , Ali Etemad , Michael Greenspan

Normalizing flows can generate complex target distributions and thus show promise in many applications in Bayesian statistics as an alternative or complement to MCMC for sampling posteriors. Since no data set from the target posterior…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-07-19 Marylou Gabrié , Grant M. Rotskoff , Eric Vanden-Eijnden

Pruning methods have recently grown in popularity as an effective way to reduce the size and computational complexity of deep neural networks. Large numbers of parameters can be removed from trained models with little discernible loss in…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-01-18 Tim Whitaker , Darrell Whitley

Bayesian posterior inference is prevalent in various machine learning problems. Variational inference provides one way to approximate the posterior distribution, however its expressive power is limited and so is the accuracy of resulting…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-07-11 Guoqing Zheng , Yiming Yang , Jaime Carbonell

Some real-world decision-making problems require making probabilistic forecasts over multiple steps at once. However, methods for probabilistic forecasting may fail to capture correlations in the underlying time-series that exist over long…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-01-19 Arec Jamgochian , Di Wu , Kunal Menda , Soyeon Jung , Mykel J. Kochenderfer