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The inefficiency of using an unbiased estimator in a Monte Carlo procedure can be quantified using an inefficiency constant, equal to the product of the variance of the estimator and its mean computational cost. We develop methods for…

Computation · Statistics 2016-01-08 Tomasz Badowski

Normalizing flows provide an elegant approach to generative modeling that allows for efficient sampling and exact density evaluation of unknown data distributions. However, current techniques have significant limitations in their…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-06-22 Sahil Sidheekh , Chris B. Dock , Tushar Jain , Radu Balan , Maneesh K. Singh

We present a novel technique for amortized posterior estimation using Normalizing Flows trained with likelihood-weighted importance sampling. This approach allows for the efficient inference of theoretical parameters in high-dimensional…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-23 Rajneil Baruah

Self-learning Monte Carlo (SLMC) methods are recently proposed to accelerate Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods using a machine learning model. With latent generative models, SLMC methods realize efficient Monte Carlo updates with less…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-09-21 Yuma Ichikawa , Akira Nakagawa , Hiromoto Masayuki , Yuhei Umeda

Normalizing Flows are generative models that directly maximize the likelihood. Previously, the design of normalizing flows was largely constrained by the need for analytical invertibility. We overcome this constraint by a training procedure…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-04-25 Felix Draxler , Peter Sorrenson , Lea Zimmermann , Armand Rousselot , Ullrich Köthe

Normalizing flows (NFs) provide a powerful tool to construct an expressive distribution by a sequence of trackable transformations of a base distribution and form a probabilistic model of underlying data. Rotation, as an important quantity…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2023-04-11 Yulin Liu , Haoran Liu , Yingda Yin , Yang Wang , Baoquan Chen , He Wang

Bayesian optimal experimental design (OED) seeks experiments that maximize the expected information gain (EIG) in model parameters. Directly estimating the EIG using nested Monte Carlo is computationally expensive and requires an explicit…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-04-29 Jiayuan Dong , Christian Jacobsen , Mehdi Khalloufi , Maryam Akram , Wanjiao Liu , Karthik Duraisamy , Xun Huan

We introduce a general Monte Carlo method based on Nested Sampling (NS), for sampling complex probability distributions and estimating the normalising constant. The method uses one or more particles, which explore a mixture of nested…

Computation · Statistics 2012-02-27 Brendon J. Brewer , Livia B. Pártay , Gábor Csányi

Stochastic differential equations (SDEs) are well suited to modelling noisy and irregularly sampled time series found in finance, physics, and machine learning. Traditional approaches require costly numerical solvers to sample between…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-30 Naoki Kiyohara , Edward Johns , Yingzhen Li

Adaptive Multilevel Splitting (AMS for short) is a generic Monte Carlo method for Markov processes that simulates rare events and estimates associated probabilities. Despite its practical efficiency, there are almost no theoretical results…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-04-24 Frédéric Cérou , Bernard Delyon , Arnaud Guyader , Mathias Rousset

Accounting for inaccuracies in Monte Carlo simulations is a crucial step in any high energy physics analysis. It becomes especially important when training machine learning models, which can amplify simulation inaccuracies and introduce…

High Energy Physics - Phenomenology · Physics 2023-09-29 Samuel Bright-Thonney , Philip Harris , Patrick McCormack , Simon Rothman

Adaptive importance sampling (AIS) methods provide a useful alternative to Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms for performing inference of intractable distributions. Population Monte Carlo (PMC) algorithms constitute a family of AIS…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-12-13 Soumyasundar Pal , Antonios Valkanas , Mark Coates

Normalizing flows are exact-likelihood generative neural networks which approximately transform samples from a simple prior distribution to samples of the probability distribution of interest. Recent work showed that such generative models…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-10-27 Jonas Köhler , Leon Klein , Frank Noé

The development of enhanced sampling methods has greatly extended the scope of atomistic simulations, allowing long-time phenomena to be studied with accessible computational resources. Many such methods rely on the identification of an…

Computational Physics · Physics 2022-06-08 Luigi Bonati , GiovanniMaria Piccini , Michele Parrinello

While deep learning has expanded the possibilities for highly expressive variational families, the practical benefits of these tools for variational inference (VI) are often limited by the minimization of the traditional Kullback-Leibler…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-10-18 Roman Soletskyi , Marylou Gabrié , Bruno Loureiro

Solving decision problems in complex, stochastic environments is often achieved by estimating the expected outcome of decisions via Monte Carlo sampling. However, sampling may overlook rare, but important events, which can severely impact…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-05-16 Lachlan Gibson , Marcus Hoerger , Dirk Kroese

Bayesian inference for stochastic volatility models using MCMC methods highly depends on actual parameter values in terms of sampling efficiency. While draws from the posterior utilizing the standard centered parameterization break down…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-03-08 Gregor Kastner , Sylvia Frühwirth-Schnatter

Anomaly detection in medical images is challenging due to limited annotations and a domain gap compared to natural images. Existing reconstruction methods often rely on frozen pre-trained encoders, which limits adaptation to domain-specific…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2025-08-28 Luhu Li , Bowen Lin , Mukhtiar Khan , Shujun Fu

Analyzing and interpreting time-dependent stochastic data requires accurate and robust density estimation. In this paper we extend the concept of normalizing flows to so-called temporal Normalizing Flows (tNFs) to estimate time dependent…

Computational Physics · Physics 2019-12-20 Gert-Jan Both , Remy Kusters

Normalizing flows are an established approach for modelling complex probability densities through invertible transformations from a base distribution. However, the accuracy with which the target distribution can be captured by the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-02-02 Harry Bevins , Will Handley , Thomas Gessey-Jones
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