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The Bayesian paradigm offers principled tools for sequential decision-making under uncertainty, but its reliance on a probabilistic model for all parameters can hinder the incorporation of complex structural constraints. We introduce a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-09 Kaizheng Wang

The celebrated Bernstein von-Mises theorem ensures that credible regions from Bayesian posterior are well-calibrated when the model is correctly-specified, in the frequentist sense that their coverage probabilities tend to the nominal…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-09-17 Rong Tang , Yun Yang

We propose a novel approach for estimating conditional or parametric expectations in the setting where obtaining samples or evaluating integrands is costly. Through the framework of probabilistic numerical methods (such as Bayesian…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-06-25 Zonghao Chen , Masha Naslidnyk , Arthur Gretton , François-Xavier Briol

This paper is concerned with Bayesian inferential methods for data from controlled branching processes that account for model robustness through the use of disparities. Under regularity conditions, we establish that estimators built on…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-02-19 M. González , C. Minuesa , I. del Puerto , A. N. Vidyashankar

Causal discovery is to learn cause-effect relationships among variables given observational data and is important for many applications. Existing causal discovery methods assume data sufficiency, which may not be the case in many real world…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-06-20 Zijun Cui , Naiyu Yin , Yuru Wang , Qiang Ji

Policymakers in resource-constrained settings require experimental designs that satisfy strict budget limits while ensuring precise estimation of treatment effects. We propose a framework that applies a dependent randomized rounding…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-06-17 Khurram Yamin , Edward Kennedy , Bryan Wilder

Experimental design is crucial for inference where limitations in the data collection procedure are present due to cost or other restrictions. Optimal experimental designs determine parameters that in some appropriate sense make the data…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2016-03-11 Panagiotis Tsilifis , Roger G. Ghanem , Paris Hajali

Selection bias arises when the probability that an observation enters a dataset depends on variables related to the quantities of interest, leading to systematic distortions in estimation and uncertainty quantification. For example, in…

A fundamental problem in numerical analysis and approximation theory is approximating smooth functions by polynomials. A much harder version under recent consideration is to enforce bounds constraints on the approximating polynomial. In…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2021-12-28 Larry Allen , Robert C. Kirby

Boson sampling stands out as a promising approach toward experimental demonstration of quantum computational advantage. However, the presence of physical noise in near-term experiments hinders the realization of the quantum computational…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2025-09-30 Byeongseon Go , Changhun Oh , Hyunseok Jeong

To answer questions of "causes of effects", the probability of necessity is introduced for assessing whether or not an observed outcome was caused by an earlier treatment. However, the statistical inference for probability of necessity is…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-04-14 Ping Zhang , Ruoyu Wang , Wang Miao

We present the first framework for Gaussian-process-modulated Poisson processes when the temporal data appear in the form of panel counts. Panel count data frequently arise when experimental subjects are observed only at discrete time…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-03-13 Hongyi Ding , Young Lee , Issei Sato , Masashi Sugiyama

This article presents a general approximation-theoretic framework to analyze measure transport algorithms for probabilistic modeling. A primary motivating application for such algorithms is sampling -- a central task in statistical…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2024-09-19 Ricardo Baptista , Bamdad Hosseini , Nikola B. Kovachki , Youssef M. Marzouk , Amir Sagiv

This paper begins with a description of methods for estimating image probability density functions that reflects the observation that such data is usually constrained to lie in restricted regions of the high-dimensional image space-not…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2023-11-14 Peter Tu , Zhaoyuan Yang , Richard Hartley , Zhiwei Xu , Jing Zhang , Yiwei Fu , Dylan Campbell , Jaskirat Singh , Tianyu Wang

Bayesian coresets speed up posterior inference in the large-scale data regime by approximating the full-data log-likelihood function with a surrogate log-likelihood based on a small, weighted subset of the data. But while Bayesian coresets…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-10-18 Trevor Campbell

We address the challenge of sequential data-driven decision-making under context distributional uncertainty. This problem arises in numerous real-world scenarios where the learner optimizes black-box objective functions in the presence of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-03-27 Francesco Micheli , Efe C. Balta , Anastasios Tsiamis , John Lygeros

Causal inference from observational data provides strong evidence for the best action in decision-making without performing expensive randomized trials. The effect of an action is usually not identifiable under unobserved confounding, even…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-02 Md Musfiqur Rahman , Ziwei Jiang , Hilaf Hasson , Murat Kocaoglu

While robust divergence such as density power divergence and $\gamma$-divergence is helpful for robust statistical inference in the presence of outliers, the tuning parameter that controls the degree of robustness is chosen in a…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-09-15 Shonosuke Sugasawa , Shouto Yonekura

A strategy for finding transition paths connecting two stable basins is presented. The starting point is the Hamilton principle of stationary action; we show how it can be transformed into a minimum principle through the addition of…

Materials Science · Physics 2009-11-07 Daniele Passerone , Matteo Ceccarelli , Michele Parrinello

We consider word complexity and topological entropy for random substitution subshifts. In contrast to previous work, we do not assume that the underlying random substitution is compatible. We show that the subshift of a primitive random…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2024-04-23 Andrew Mitchell