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The inference of causal relationships using observational data from partially observed multivariate systems with hidden variables is a fundamental question in many scientific domains. Methods extracting causal information from conditional…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-10-13 Daniel Chicharro , Michel Besserve , Stefano Panzeri

Operator-valued concentration inequalities are foundational to the analysis of modern high-dimensional statistics and randomized algorithms. However, standard oracle bounds are frequently limited in practice: they require explicit a priori…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-05-18 Diego Martinez-Taboada , Aaditya Ramdas

Recent years have witnessed the introduction and development of extremely fast rational function algorithms. Many ideas in this realm arose from polynomial-based linear-algebraic algorithms. However, polynomial approximation is occasionally…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2025-10-03 James Chok , Geoffrey M. Vasil

We study compressed sensing when the sampling vectors are chosen from the rows of a unitary matrix. In the literature, these sampling vectors are typically chosen randomly; the use of randomness has enabled major empirical and theoretical…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2026-04-07 Yaniv Plan , Matthew S. Scott , Ozgur Yilmaz

The number of modes in a probability density function is representative of the complexity of a model and can also be viewed as the number of subpopulations. Despite its relevance, there has been limited research in this area. A novel…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-05-09 José E. Chacón , Javier Fernández Serrano

In Bayesian Optimization (BO), additive assumptions can mitigate the twin difficulties of modeling and searching a complex function in high dimension. However, common acquisition functions, like the Additive Lower Confidence Bound, ignore…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-10-15 Nathan Wycoff

In this paper, we address the random sampling problem for the class of Mellin band-limited functions BT which is concentrated on a bounded cube. It is established that any function in BT can be approximated by an element in a…

Functional Analysis · Mathematics 2023-05-25 Shivam Bajpeyi , Dhiraj Patel , S. Sivananthan

An empirical Bayes approach to the estimation of possibly sparse sequences observed in Gaussian white noise is set out and investigated. The prior considered is a mixture of an atom of probability at zero and a heavy-tailed density \gamma,…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2007-06-13 Iain M. Johnstone , Bernard W. Silverman

Gaussian boson sampling (GBS) allows for a way to demonstrate quantum supremacy with the relatively modest experimental resources of squeezed light sources, linear optics, and photon detection. In a realistic experimental setting, numerous…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2022-03-09 Junheng Shi , Tim Byrnes

Modeling and parameter estimation for neuronal dynamics are often challenging because many parameters can range over orders of magnitude and are difficult to measure experimentally. Moreover, selecting a suitable model complexity requires a…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2018-01-31 J. E. Rubin , B. Krauskopf , H. M. Osinga

We develop the theory and practice of an approach to modelling and probabilistic inference in causal networks that is suitable when application-specific or analysis-specific constraints should inform such inference or when little or no data…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2017-05-16 Paul Beaumont , Michael Huth

Let $\pa{X_{t}}_{t\in T}$ be a family of real-valued centered random variables indexed by a countable set $T$. In the first part of this paper, we establish exponential bounds for the deviation probabilities of the supremum $Z=\sup_{t\in…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2009-09-11 Yannick Baraud

This paper introduces a practical sampling method for training surrogate models in the context of uncertainty propagation. We propose a heuristic method to uniformly draw samples within highest density regions of the density given by the…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-09-15 Jocelyn Minini , Micha Wasem

Probability trees are one of the simplest models of causal generative processes. They possess clean semantics and -- unlike causal Bayesian networks -- they can represent context-specific causal dependencies, which are necessary for e.g.…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2020-11-13 Tim Genewein , Tom McGrath , Grégoire Déletang , Vladimir Mikulik , Miljan Martic , Shane Legg , Pedro A. Ortega

Uncertainty often plays an important role in dynamic flow problems. In this paper, we consider both, a stationary and a dynamic flow model with uncertain boundary data on networks. We introduce two different ways how to compute the…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2021-04-28 Michael Schuster , Elisa Strauch , Martin Gugat , Jens Lang

We introduce a two-stage probabilistic framework for statistical downscaling using unpaired data. Statistical downscaling seeks a probabilistic map to transform low-resolution data from a biased coarse-grained numerical scheme to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-11-01 Zhong Yi Wan , Ricardo Baptista , Yi-fan Chen , John Anderson , Anudhyan Boral , Fei Sha , Leonardo Zepeda-Núñez

A class of causal effect functionals requires integration over conditional densities of continuous variables, as in mediation effects and nonparametric identification in causal graphical models. Estimating such densities and evaluating the…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-02-26 Xiaxian Ou , Razieh Nabi

The Brown-Resnick max-stable process has proven to be well-suited for modeling extremes of complex environmental processes, but in many applications its likelihood function is intractable and inference must be based on a composite…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-01-16 Emeric Thibaud , Juha Aalto , Daniel S. Cooley , Anthony C. Davison , Juha Heikkinen

Many probabilistic programming languages allow programs to be run under constraints in order to carry out Bayesian inference. Running programs under constraints could enable other uses such as rare event simulation and probabilistic…

Programming Languages · Computer Science 2015-01-19 Neil Toronto , Jay McCarthy , David Van Horn

The local Rademacher complexity framework is one of the most successful general-purpose toolboxes for establishing sharp excess risk bounds for statistical estimators based on the framework of empirical risk minimization. Applying this…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-02-24 Varun Kanade , Patrick Rebeschini , Tomas Vaskevicius