Related papers: NFL Draft Modelling: Loss Functional Analysis
We propose AFTNet, a novel network-constraint survival analysis method based on the Weibull accelerated failure time (AFT) model solved by a penalized likelihood approach for variable selection and estimation. When using the log-linear…
Banks routinely use neural networks to make decisions. While these models offer higher accuracy, they are susceptible to adversarial attacks, a risk often overlooked in the context of event sequences, particularly sequences of financial…
We propose a distributionally robust logistic regression model with an unfairness penalty that prevents discrimination with respect to sensitive attributes such as gender or ethnicity. This model is equivalent to a tractable convex…
This paper introduces a novel framework for designing fair and sustainable unemployment benefits, grounded in cooperative game theory and real-time fiscal policy. The labor market is modeled as a coalitional game, where a random subset of…
For NCAA football, we provide a method for sports bettors to determine if they have a positive expected value bet based on the betting lines available to them and how they believe the game will end. The method we develop modifies…
Risk management is an important part of financial practice, essential for protecting assets and investments in modern-day volatile markets. This paper proposes a mixture of mirrored Weibull (MMW) distribution for modelling stock returns and…
The National Football League (NFL) Scouting Combine serves as a tool to evaluate the skills of prospective players and assess their readiness to play in the NFL. The development of machine learning brings new opportunities in assessing the…
Estimating win probability is one of the classic modeling tasks of sports analytics. Many widely used win probability estimators use machine learning to fit the relationship between a binary win/loss outcome variable and certain game-state…
The game-theoretic risk management framework put forth in the precursor work "Towards a Theory of Games with Payoffs that are Probability-Distributions" (arXiv:1506.07368 [q-fin.EC]) is herein extended by algorithmic details on how to…
The ubiquity of professional sports and specifically the NFL have lead to an increase in popularity for Fantasy Football. Users have many tools at their disposal: statistics, predictions, rankings of experts and even recommendations of…
The strategic orchestration of football matchplays profoundly influences game outcomes, motivating a surge in research aimed at uncovering tactical nuances through social network analysis. In this paper, we delve into the microscopic…
Fairness,the impartial treatment towards individuals or groups regardless of their inherent or acquired characteristics [20], is a critical challenge for the successful implementation of Artificial Intelligence (AI) in multiple fields like…
A recent body of experimental literature has studied empirical game-theoretical analysis, in which we have partial knowledge of a game, consisting of observations of a subset of the pure-strategy profiles and their associated payoffs to…
This study analyzes pass networks in football (soccer) using a stochastic model known as the P\'olya urn. By focusing on preferential selection, it theoretically demonstrates that the time evolution of networks can be characterized by a…
There seems to be an upper limit to predicting the outcome of matches in (semi-)professional sports. Recent work has proposed that this is due to chance and attempts have been made to simulate the distribution of win percentages to identify…
While significant advancements have been made in the field of fair machine learning, the majority of studies focus on scenarios where the decision model operates on a static population. In this paper, we study fairness in dynamic systems…
In recent years, high-frequency trading has emerged as a crucial strategy in stock trading. This study aims to develop an advanced high-frequency trading algorithm and compare the performance of three different mathematical models: the…
In this study, basketball teams are conceptualized as complex adaptive systems to examine their (re)organizational processes in response the time remaining to shoot. Using temporal passing networks to model team behavior, the focus is on…
This paper considers the challenge of designing football group draw mechanisms which have the uniform distribution over all valid draw assignments, but are also entertaining, practical, and transparent. We explain how to simulate the FIFA…
In football, attacking teams attempt to break through the opponent's defensive line to create scoring opportunities. This action, known as a Line Break, is a critical indicator of offensive effectiveness and tactical performance, yet…