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Inefficient markets allow investors to consistently outperform the market. To demonstrate that inefficiencies exist in sports betting markets, we created a betting algorithm that generates above market returns for the NFL, NBA, NCAAF,…

General Economics · Economics 2019-10-24 Sathya Ramesh , Ragib Mostofa , Marco Bornstein , John Dobelman

Often in prediction tasks, the predictive model itself can influence the distribution of the target variable, a phenomenon termed performative prediction. Generally, this influence stems from strategic actions taken by stakeholders with a…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-04-14 Daniele Bracale , Subha Maity , Felipe Maia Polo , Seamus Somerstep , Moulinath Banerjee , Yuekai Sun

Improving the fairness of machine learning models is a nuanced task that requires decision makers to reason about multiple, conflicting criteria. The majority of fair machine learning methods transform the error-fairness trade-off into a…

Neural and Evolutionary Computing · Computer Science 2023-04-25 William G. La Cava

Fairness in machine learning has attracted increasing attention in recent years. The fairness methods improving algorithmic fairness for in-distribution data may not perform well under distribution shifts. In this paper, we first…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-10-24 Zhimeng Jiang , Xiaotian Han , Hongye Jin , Guanchu Wang , Rui Chen , Na Zou , Xia Hu

We develop a machine learning approach to represent and analyze the underlying spatial structure that governs shot selection among professional basketball players in the NBA. Typically, NBA players are discussed and compared in an…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2014-01-09 Andrew Miller , Luke Bornn , Ryan Adams , Kirk Goldsberry

With the increasingly broad deployment of federated learning (FL) systems in the real world, it is critical but challenging to ensure fairness in FL, i.e. reasonably satisfactory performances for each of the numerous diverse clients. In…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-05-10 Guojun Zhang , Saber Malekmohammadi , Xi Chen , Yaoliang Yu

Market valuations for professional athletes is a difficult problem, given the amount of variability in performance and location from year to year. In the National Basketball Association (NBA), a straightforward way to address this problem…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-09 Junhao Su , David Grimsman , Christopher Archibald

Performative learning addresses the increasingly pervasive situations in which algorithmic decisions may induce changes in the data distribution as a consequence of their public deployment. We propose a novel view in which these…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-11-05 Edwige Cyffers , Muni Sreenivas Pydi , Jamal Atif , Olivier Cappé

Many real world data mining applications involve obtaining predictive models using data sets with strongly imbalanced distributions of the target variable. Frequently, the least common values of this target variable are associated with…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2015-05-14 Paula Branco , Luis Torgo , Rita Ribeiro

One of the key challenges in predictive maintenance is to predict the impending downtime of an equipment with a reasonable prediction horizon so that countermeasures can be put in place. Classically, this problem has been posed in two…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-12-19 Karan Aggarwal , Onur Atan , Ahmed Farahat , Chi Zhang , Kosta Ristovski , Chetan Gupta

Vertical Federated Learning (VFL) is a crucial paradigm for training machine learning models on feature-partitioned, distributed data. However, due to privacy restrictions, few public real-world VFL datasets exist for algorithm evaluation,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-03-14 Zhaomin Wu , Junyi Hou , Bingsheng He

High-frequency trading (HFT) represents a pivotal and intensely competitive domain within the financial markets. The velocity and accuracy of data processing exert a direct influence on profitability, underscoring the significance of this…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-12-03 Yuxin Fan , Zhuohuan Hu , Lei Fu , Yu Cheng , Liyang Wang , Yuxiang Wang

The evaluation of fairness models in Machine Learning involves complex challenges, such as defining appropriate metrics, balancing trade-offs between utility and fairness, and there are still gaps in this stage. This work presents a novel…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-03 Gökhan Özbulak , Oscar Jimenez-del-Toro , Maíra Fatoretto , Lilian Berton , André Anjos

In many prediction problems, the predictive model affects the distribution of the prediction target. This phenomenon is known as performativity and is often caused by the behavior of individuals with vested interests in the outcome of the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-06-03 Seamus Somerstep , Ya'acov Ritov , Yuekai Sun

Fairness in algorithmic decision-making is often defined in the predictive space, where predictive performance - used as a proxy for decision-maker (DM) utility - is traded off against prediction-based fairness notions, such as demographic…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-16 Kavya Gupta , Nektarios Kalampalikis , Christoph Heitz , Isabel Valera

The definition and implementation of fairness in automated decisions has been extensively studied by the research community. Yet, there hides fallacious reasoning, misleading assertions, and questionable practices at the foundations of the…

Computers and Society · Computer Science 2023-06-05 Robert Lee Poe , Soumia Zohra El Mestari

Mitigating bias in training on biased datasets is an important open problem. Several techniques have been proposed, however the typical evaluation regime is very limited, considering very narrow data conditions. For instance, the effect of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-10-18 Xudong Han , Aili Shen , Trevor Cohn , Timothy Baldwin , Lea Frermann

Both industry and academia have made considerable progress in developing trustworthy and responsible machine learning (ML) systems. While critical concepts like fairness and explainability are often addressed, the safety of systems is…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-11-08 Patrick Kaiser , Christoph Kern , David Rügamer

The rise of algorithmic decision-making has spawned much research on fair machine learning (ML). Financial institutions use ML for building risk scorecards that support a range of credit-related decisions. Yet, the literature on fair ML in…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-06-20 Nikita Kozodoi , Johannes Jacob , Stefan Lessmann

The exponential growth of data volumes has led to escalating computational costs in machine learning model training. However, many features fail to contribute positively to model performance while consuming substantial computational…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-12-01 Chi Zhao , Jing Liu , Elena Parilina
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