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Related papers: Revealed Bayesian Persuasion

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This paper examines a commonly used measure of persuasion whose precise interpretation has been obscure in the literature. By using the potential outcome framework, we define the causal persuasion rate by a proper conditional probability of…

Econometrics · Economics 2022-12-02 Sung Jae Jun , Sokbae Lee

A central concept in active inference is that the internal states of a physical system parametrise probability measures over states of the external world. These can be seen as an agent's beliefs, expressed as a Bayesian prior or posterior.…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2021-12-28 Nathaniel Virgo , Martin Biehl , Simon McGregor

Empirical likelihood is a popular nonparametric statistical tool that does not require any distributional assumptions. In this paper, we explore the possibility of conducting variable selection via Bayesian empirical likelihood. We show…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-06-13 Yichen Cheng , Yichuan Zhao

Background: Confirmation bias is the tendency to acquire or evaluate new information in a way that is consistent with one's preexisting beliefs. It is omnipresent in psychology, economics, and even scientific practices. Prior theoretical…

Physics and Society · Physics 2014-11-18 A. E. Allahverdyan , Aram Galstyan

We study a Bayesian persuasion setting with binary actions (adopt and reject) for Receiver. We examine the following question - how well can Sender perform, in terms of persuading Receiver to adopt, when ignorant of Receiver's utility? We…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2021-05-31 Yakov Babichenko , Inbal Talgam-Cohen , Haifeng Xu , Konstantin Zabarnyi

When estimating the directed information between two jointly stationary Markov processes, it is typically assumed that the recipient of the directed information is itself Markov of the same order as the joint process. While this assumption…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2019-05-02 Gabriel Schamberg , Todd P. Coleman

The tension between persuasion and privacy preservation is common in real-world settings. Online platforms should protect the privacy of web users whose data they collect, even as they seek to disclose information about these data to…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2024-02-27 Yuqi Pan , Zhiwei Steven Wu , Haifeng Xu , Shuran Zheng

In the persuasion model, apart from a few special cases, comparative statics has been an open question. We answer it, delineating which shifts of the sender's interim payoff lead her optimally to choose a more informative signal. Our first…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2025-11-26 Gregorio Curello , Ludvig Sinander

Evidence-based decision-making entails collecting (costly) observations about an underlying phenomenon of interest, and subsequently committing to an (informed) decision on the basis of accumulated evidence. In this setting, active sensing…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-06-26 Daniel Jarrett , Mihaela van der Schaar

We study a Bayesian persuasion problem with externalities. In this model, a principal sends signals to inform multiple agents about the state of the world. Simultaneously, due to the existence of externalities in the agents' utilities, the…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2024-12-18 Jonathan Shaki , Jiarui Gan , Sarit Kraus

Understanding human behavior from observed data is critical for transparency and accountability in decision-making. Consider real-world settings such as healthcare, in which modeling a decision-maker's policy is challenging -- with no…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-11-01 Alihan Hüyük , Daniel Jarrett , Mihaela van der Schaar

We establish that statistical discrimination is possible if and only if it is impossible to uniquely identify the signal structure observed by an employer from a realized empirical distribution of skills. The impossibility of statistical…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2018-08-07 Christopher P. Chambers , Federico Echenique

The problem of hypothesis testing is examined from both the historical and Bayesian points of view in the case that sampling is from an underlying joint probability distribution and the hypotheses tested for are those of independence and…

comp-gas · Physics 2008-02-03 David Wolf

We explore whether ambiguous communication can be beneficial to the sender in a persuasion problem, when the receiver (and possibly the sender) is ambiguity averse. Our analysis highlights the necessity of using a collection of experiments…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2026-02-19 Xiaoyu Cheng , Peter Klibanoff , Sujoy Mukerji , Ludovic Renou

We study optimal information provision in transportation networks when users are strategic and the network state is uncertain. An omniscient planner observes the network state and discloses information to the users with the goal of…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2023-12-01 Leonardo Cianfanelli , Alexia Ambrogio , Giacomo Como

Active inference, a corollary of the free energy principle, is a formal way of describing the behavior of certain kinds of random dynamical systems that have the appearance of sentience. In this chapter, we describe how active inference…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-10-11 Noor Sajid , Lancelot Da Costa , Thomas Parr , Karl Friston

It is well known that reinforcement learning can be cast as inference in an appropriate probabilistic model. However, this commonly involves introducing a distribution over agent trajectories with probabilities proportional to exponentiated…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2021-10-07 David Tolpin , Tomer Dobkin

This manuscript presents an advanced framework for Bayesian learning by incorporating action and state-dependent signal variances into decision-making models. This framework is pivotal in understanding complex data-feedback loops and…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-11-29 Kaiwen Hou

This paper presents a model of costly information acquisition where decision-makers can choose whether to elaborate information superficially or precisely. The former action is costless, while the latter entails a processing cost. Within…

General Economics · Economics 2024-11-27 Federico Vaccari

An important use of machine learning is to learn what people value. What posts or photos should a user be shown? Which jobs or activities would a person find rewarding? In each case, observations of people's past choices can inform our…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2015-12-21 Owain Evans , Andreas Stuhlmueller , Noah D. Goodman