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Epidemic outbreaks are an important healthcare challenge, especially in developing countries where they represent one of the major causes of mortality. Approaches that can rapidly target subpopulations for surveillance and control are…
The spreading of an epidemic is determined by the connectiviy patterns which underlie the population. While it has been noted that a virus spreads more easily on a network in which global distances are small, it remains a great challenge to…
The statistics of outbreaks in a model for the propagation of meningococcal diseases is analyzed, taking into account the possibility that the population is fragmented into weakly connected patches. It is shown that, depending on the size…
Understanding the dynamics of the spread of diseases within populations is critical for effective public health interventions. We extend the classical SIR model by incorporating additional complexities such as the introduction of a cure and…
The spread of infectious diseases crucially depends on the pattern of contacts among individuals. Knowledge of these patterns is thus essential to inform models and computational efforts. Few empirical studies are however available that…
Traditional biomedical approaches treat diseases in isolation, but the importance of synergistic disease interactions is now recognized. As a first step we present and analyze a simple coinfection model for two diseases affecting…
We present two epidemiological models, which extend the classical SEIR model by accounting for the effect of indiscriminate quarantining, isolation of infected individuals based on testing and the presence of asymptomatic individuals. Given…
In the simple mean-field SIS and SIR epidemic models, infection is transmitted from infectious to susceptible members of a finite population by independent $p-$coin tosses. Spatial variants of these models are proposed, in which finite…
Metapopulation models are commonly used in ecology, evolution, and epidemiology. These models usually entail homogeneity assumptions within patches and study networks of migration between patches to generate insights into conservation of…
For many infectious diseases, a small-world network on an underlying regular lattice is a suitable simplified model for the contact structure of the host population. It is well known that the contact network, described in this setting by a…
In this work, we use a new approach to study the spread of an infectious disease. Indeed, we study a SIR epidemic model with variable infectivity, where the individuals are distributed over a compact subset $D$ of $\R^d$. We define…
Epidemic spread on networks is one of the most studied dynamics in network science and has important implications in real epidemic scenarios. Nonetheless, the dynamics of real epidemics and how it is affected by the underline structure of…
In this work, the spread of a contagious disease on a society where the individuals may take precautions is modeled. The primary assumption is that the infected individuals transmit the infection to the susceptible members of the community…
The impact of spatial structure on the spread of an epidemic is an important issue in the propagation of infectious diseases. Recent studies, both deterministic and stochastic, have made it possible to understand the importance of the…
In May 2022, a cluster of mpox cases were detected in the UK that could not be traced to recent travel history from an endemic region. Over the coming months, the outbreak grew, with over 3000 total cases reported in the UK, and similar…
When a new infectious disease (or a new strain of an existing one) emerges, as in the recent COVID-19 pandemic, different types of mobility restrictions are considered to slow down or mitigate the spread of the disease. The measures to be…
This paper is concerned with a stochastic model for the spread of an SEIR (susceptible -> exposed (=latent) -> infective -> removed) epidemic with a contact tracing scheme, in which removed individuals may name some of their infectious…
Men who have sex with men (MSM) remain disproportionately affected by HIV, yet optimizing Pre-exposure Prophylaxis (PrEP) distribution remains a public health challenge. Current guidelines and most modelling studies do not incorporate…
The spread of an infectious disease can be promoted by previous infections with other pathogens. This cooperative effect can give rise to violent outbreaks, reflecting the presence of an abrupt epidemic transition. As for other diffusive…
Mathematical and computational modeling approaches are increasingly used as quantitative tools in the analysis and forecasting of infectious disease epidemics. The growing need for realism in addressing complex public health questions is…