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The spread of sexually transmitted diseases (e.g. Chlamydia, Syphilis, Gonorrhea, HIV) across populations is a major concern for scientists and health agencies. In this context, both data collection on sexual contact networks and the…
In a metapopulation network, infectious diseases spread widely because of the travel of individuals. In the present study, we consider a modified metapopulation Susceptible-Infected-Removed (SIR) model with a latent period, which we call…
In this study, we discuss the impacts of assortative mixing by mask-wearing on the effectiveness of mask use in suppressing the propagation of epidemics. We employ the mask model, which is an epidemic model involving mask wearers and…
This study investigates the utilization of various mathematical models for comprehending and managing outbreaks of infectious diseases, with a specific focus on how different distributions of incubation times influence predictions regarding…
While most existing epidemic models focus on the influence of isolated factors, infectious disease transmission is inherently shaped by the complex interplay of multiple interacting elements. To better capture real-world dynamics, it is…
In this study we present a dynamical agent-based model to investigate the interplay between the socio-economy of and SEIRS-type epidemic spreading over a geographical area, divided to smaller area districts and further to smallest area…
Global strategies to contain a pandemic, such as social distancing and protective measures, are designed to reduce the overall transmission rate between individuals. Despite such measures, essential institutions, including hospitals,…
We propose a Markovian stochastic approach to model the spread of a SARS-CoV-2-like infection within a closed group of humans. The model takes the form of a Partially Observable Markov Decision Process (POMDP), whose states are given by the…
The spreading of epidemics is very much determined by the structure of the contact network, which may be impacted by the mobility dynamics of the individuals themselves. In confined scenarios where a small, closed population spends most of…
Testing individuals for pathogens can affect the spread of epidemics. Understanding how individual-level processes of sampling and reporting test results can affect community- or population-level spread is a dynamical modeling question. The…
In the first part of this paper, we review old and new results about the influence of host population heterogeneity on (various characteristics of) epidemic outbreaks. In the second part we highlight a modelling issue that so far has…
Contact patterns in populations fundamentally influence the spread of infectious diseases. Current mathematical methods for epidemiological forecasting on networks largely assume that contacts between individuals are fixed, at least for the…
We study dynamics of spread of epidemics of SIR type in a realistic spatially-explicit geographical region, Southern and Central Ontario, using census data obtained from Statistics Canada, and examine the role of population mixing in…
Multiple-type branching processes that model the spread of infectious diseases are investigated. In these stochastic processes, the disease goes through multiple stages before it eventually disappears. We mostly focus on the critical…
Social contact studies, investigating social contact patterns in a population sample, have been an important contribution for epidemic models to better fit real life epidemics. A contact matrix $M$, having the \emph{mean} number of contacts…
A stochastic epidemic model accounting for the effect of contact-tracing on the spread of an infectious disease is studied. Precisely, individuals identified as infected may contribute to detecting other infectious individuals by providing…
Using digitized images of the three-dimensional, branching structures for root systems of bean seedlings, together with analytical and numerical methods that map a common 'SIR' epidemiological model onto the bond percolation problem, we…
Networks of contacts capable of spreading infectious diseases are often observed to be highly heterogeneous, with the majority of individuals having fewer contacts than the mean, and a significant minority having relatively very many…
Transmission rates in epidemic outbreaks may vary over time depending on the societal response. Non-pharmacological mitigation strategies such as social distancing and the adoption of protective equipment aim precisely at reducing…
We consider the edge-based compartmental models for infectious disease spread introduced in Part I. These models allow us to consider standard SIR diseases spreading in random populations. In this paper we show how to handle deviations of…