Related papers: Common indicators hurt armed conflict prediction
Patterns of wins and losses in pairwise contests, such as occur in sports and games, consumer research and paired comparison studies, and human and animal social hierarchies, are commonly analyzed using probabilistic models that allow one…
Natural disasters affect hundreds of millions of people worldwide every year. Early warning, humanitarian response and recovery mechanisms can be improved by using big data sources. Measuring the different dimensions of the impact of…
Most previous works usually explained adversarial examples from several specific perspectives, lacking relatively integral comprehension about this problem. In this paper, we present a systematic study on adversarial examples from three…
This paper examines the impact of the Anglophone Conflict in Cameroon on human capital accumulation. Using high-quality individual-level data on test scores and information on conflict-related violent events, a difference-in-differences…
Land-use decision-making processes have a long history of producing globally pervasive systemic equity and sustainability concerns. Quantitative, optimization-based planning approaches, e.g. Multi-Objective Land Allocation (MOLA), seemingly…
We analyze conflict between a citizenry and an insurgent group over a fixed resource such as land. The citizenry has an elected leader who proposes a division such that, the lower the land ceded to the insurgents, the higher the cost of…
There are a number of hypotheses underlying the existence of adversarial examples for classification problems. These include the high-dimensionality of the data, high codimension in the ambient space of the data manifolds of interest, and…
From the formation of ice in small clusters of water molecules to the mass raids of army ant colonies, the emergent behavior of collectives depends critically on their size. At the same time, common wisdom holds that such behaviors are…
This paper is aimed at providing a very first, more "global", systematic point of view with respect to possible conflict generation in CA-EN-like causal structures. For simplicity, only the outermost level of graphs is taken into account.…
An important challenge in several disciplines is to understand how sudden changes can propagate among coupled systems. Examples include the synchronization of business cycles, population collapse in patchy ecosystems, markets shifting to a…
We analyze a two-period, two-market chain-store game in which an incumbent's conduct in one market is only sometimes seen in the other. This partial observability generates reputational spillovers across markets. We characterize equilibrium…
Understanding the causes of crime is a longstanding issue in researcher's agenda. While it is a hard task to extract causality from data, several linear models have been proposed to predict crime through the existing correlations between…
With increasing world population and expanded use of forests as cohabited regions, interactions and conflicts with wildlife are increasing, leading to large-scale loss of lives (animal and human) and livelihoods (economic). While community…
Evidence synthesis models that combine multiple datasets of varying design, to estimate quantities that cannot be directly observed, require the formulation of complex probabilistic models that can be expressed as graphical models. An…
We study an individual-based model in which two spatially-distributed species, characterized by different diffusivities, compete for resources. We consider three different ecological settings. In the first, diffusing faster has a cost in…
The prevalence of many urban phenomena changes systematically with population size. We propose a theory that unifies models of economic complexity and cultural evolution to derive urban scaling. The theory accounts for the difference in…
Social unrest may reflect a variety of factors such as poverty, unemployment, and social injustice. Despite the many possible contributing factors, the timing of violent protests in North Africa and the Middle East in 2011 as well as…
Many large cities are found at locations with certain first nature advantages. Yet, those exogenous locational features may not be the most potent forces governing the spatial pattern of cities. In particular, population size, spacing and…
In this work, we present a novel quantification of conflict in online discussion. Unlike previous studies on conflict dynamics, which model conflict as a binary phenomenon, our measure is continuous-valued, which we validate with manually…
Geopolitical conflicts have increasingly been a driver of trade policy. We study the potential effects of global and persistent geopolitical conflicts on trade, technological innovation, and economic growth. In conventional trade models the…