Related papers: Common indicators hurt armed conflict prediction

This study extends classical models of spreading epidemics to describe the phenomenon of contagious public outrage, which eventually leads to the spread of violence following a disclosure of some unpopular political decisions and/or…

The complexity of armed conflicts is expressed in the number of fatalities that may span several orders of magnitude. This study presents a minimalist, physics-informed approach to estimating the likelihood of extreme conflict fatalities at…

Multimodal large language models (MLLMs) in long chain-of-thought reasoning often fail when different knowledge sources provide conflicting signals. We formalize these failures under a unified notion of knowledge conflict, distinguishing…

These last years, there were many studies on the problem of the conflict coming from information combination, especially in evidence theory. We can summarise the solutions for manage the conflict into three different approaches: first, we…

AI models are already deployed in societies affected by armed conflict, and journalists, humanitarian workers, governments and ordinary citizens rely on them for information or for their work processes. No established practice exists for…

Sustainable development is an imperative worldwide but metrics and data on poverty and quality of life have remained too coarse and abstract to characterize challenges adequately and guide practical progress. Nowhere is this challenge…

When the prices of cereal grains rise, social unrest and conflict become likely. In rural areas, the predation motives of perpetrators can explain the positive relationship between prices and conflict. Predation happens at places and in…

We characterize different types of conflicts that may occur in complex distributed multi-agent scenarios, such as in Ambient Intelligence (AmI) environments, and we argue that these conflicts should be resolved in a suitable order and with…

This paper is concerned with a family of Reaction-Diffusion systems that we introduced in [15], and that generalizes the SIR type models from epidemiology. Such systems are now also used to describe collective behaviors.In this paper, we…

We consider the conditions of peace and violence among ethnic groups, testing a theory designed to predict the locations of violence and interventions that can promote peace. Characterizing the model's success in predicting peace requires…

The Minority Game framework was recently generalized to account for the possibility that agents adapt not only through strategy selection but also by diversifying their response according to the kind of dynamical regime, or the risk, they…

In this paper we present an analytical and numerical study of a generalized model of two-actor cooperative-competitive conflict of the Continuous Opinions and Discrete Actions (CODA) type. Theoretically, we note that the in troduction of a…

In many scenarios, such as the evaluation of place-based policies, potential outcomes are not only dependent upon the unit's own treatment but also its neighbors' treatment. Despite this, "difference-in-differences" (DID) type estimators…

Migration patterns are complex and context-dependent, with the distances migrants travel varying greatly depending on socio-economic and demographic factors. While global migration studies often focus on Western countries, there is a…

During intergroup confrontations, agitating stimuli such as opponents' threats and provocations can trigger collective violence, even without the usual mechanisms of ingroup cooperation, such as norms with sanctions. We examine video…

Adversarial examples are malicious inputs crafted to induce misclassification. Commonly studied sensitivity-based adversarial examples introduce semantically-small changes to an input that result in a different model prediction. This paper…

Transport systems are vulnerable to disruption. This is particularly true in Africa, where there are large areas with few highways and heightened risk of violence. Here we attempt to estimate the costs of violent events on African transport…

We study a stochastic model for the diffusion of competing opinions in a population composed of three types of agents: trend-followers, opposers, and indifferent individuals. The decision dynamics are driven by reinforcement mechanisms,…

Existing metrics in competing risks survival analysis such as concordance and accuracy do not evaluate a model's ability to jointly predict the event type and the event time. To address these limitations, we propose a new metric, which we…

Decades of research has found that democratic dyads rarely exhibit violent tendencies, making the democratic peace arguably the principal finding of Peace Science. However, the democratic peace rests upon a dyadic understanding of conflict.…