Related papers: Common indicators hurt armed conflict prediction
In the United States, firearm-related deaths and injuries are a major public health issue. Because of limited federal action, state policies are particularly important, and their evaluation informs the actions of other policymakers. The…
A simple cellular automata model for a two-group war over the same territory is presented. It is shown that a qualitative advantage is not enough for a minority to win. A spatial organization as well a definite degree of aggressiveness are…
The dynamics of dispersal-structured populations, consisting of competing individuals that are characterized by different diffusion coefficients but are otherwise identical, is investigated. Competition is taken into account through…
Forest-fire and avalanche models support the notion that frequent catastrophes prevent the growth of very large populations and as such prevent rare large-scale catastrophes. We show that this notion is not universal. A new model class…
We consider a population of mobile agents able to make noisy observation of the environment and communicate their observation by production and comprehension of signals. Individuals try to align their movement direction with their…
Predictions about people, such as their expected educational achievement or their credit risk, can be performative and shape the outcome that they aim to predict. Understanding the causal effect of these predictions on the eventual outcomes…
Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) often represent conflicts between features, arising naturally during training as the network learns to integrate diverse and potentially disagreeing inputs to better predict the target variable. Despite…
Measuring uncertainty is a promising technique for detecting adversarial examples, crafted inputs on which the model predicts an incorrect class with high confidence. But many measures of uncertainty exist, including predictive en- tropy…
Civilization produces knowledge, which acts as the driving force of its development. A macro-model of civilization that accounts for the effect of knowledge production on population, energy consumption and environmental conditions is…
Historical episodes such as the World War I "live-and-let-live" system and the Christmas Truce of 1914 demonstrate that opposing military units can establish spontaneous, local cooperation even in extreme conflict environments. Such…
This paper studies the problem of detecting adversarial perturbations in a sequence of observations. Given a data sample $X_1, \ldots, X_n$ drawn from a standard normal distribution, an adversary, after observing the sample, can perturb…
Having a sufficient quantity of quality data is a critical enabler of training effective machine learning models. Being able to effectively determine the adequacy of a dataset prior to training and evaluating a model's performance would be…
Identifying the causes of a model's unfairness is an important yet relatively unexplored task. We look into this problem through the lens of training data - the major source of unfairness. We ask the following questions: How would the…
Catastrophic regime shifts in complex natural systems may be averted through advanced detection. Recent work has provided a proof-of-principle that many systems approaching a catastrophic transition may be identified through the lens of…
This study reevaluates the traditional understanding of the "political resource curse" by examining the unique impact of energy transition metals, specifically cobalt, on local-level conflicts in Africa. Contrary to previous studies that…
When a collection of phenotypically diverse organisms compete with each other for limited resources, with competition being strongest amongst the most similar, the population can evolve into tightly localised clusters. This process can be…
Previous models of international conflict have suffered two shortfalls. They tended not to embody dynamic changes, focusing rather on static slices of behavior over time. These models have also been empirically evaluated in ways that…
In this paper we develop a scientific approach to control inter-country conflict. This system makes use of a neural network and a feedback control approach. It was found that by controlling the four controllable inputs: Democracy,…
This paper deals with the modeling of social competition, possibly resulting in the onset of extreme conflicts. More precisely, we discuss models describing the interplay between individual competition for wealth distribution that, when…
We provide identification results for a broad class of learning models in which continuous outcomes depend on three types of unobservables: known heterogeneity, initially unknown heterogeneity that may be revealed over time, and transitory…