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Estimating treatment effects over time holds significance in various domains, including precision medicine, epidemiology, economy, and marketing. This paper introduces a unique approach to counterfactual regression over time, emphasizing…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-10-30 Mouad El Bouchattaoui , Myriam Tami , Benoit Lepetit , Paul-Henry Cournède

Evaluating treatment effect heterogeneity widely informs treatment decision making. At the moment, much emphasis is placed on the estimation of the conditional average treatment effect via flexible machine learning algorithms. While these…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-05-07 Lihua Lei , Emmanuel J. Candès

Fairness in predictions is of direct importance in practice due to legal, ethical, and societal reasons. This is often accomplished through counterfactual fairness, which ensures that the prediction for an individual is the same as that in…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-03 Yuchen Ma , Valentyn Melnychuk , Dennis Frauen , Stefan Feuerriegel

Counterfactual evaluation can estimate Click-Through-Rate (CTR) differences between ranking systems based on historical interaction data, while mitigating the effect of position bias and item-selection bias. We introduce the novel…

Information Retrieval · Computer Science 2020-07-29 Harrie Oosterhuis , Maarten de Rijke

The real world naturally has dimensions of time and space. Therefore, estimating the counterfactual outcomes with spatial-temporal attributes is a crucial problem. However, previous methods are based on classical statistical models, which…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-06-27 He Li , Haoang Chi , Mingyu Liu , Wanrong Huang , Liyang Xu , Wenjing Yang

Counterfactual explanations are one of the most popular methods to make predictions of black box machine learning models interpretable by providing explanations in the form of `what-if scenarios'. Most current approaches optimize a…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-10-16 Susanne Dandl , Christoph Molnar , Martin Binder , Bernd Bischl

Accurate estimation of counterfactual outcomes in high-dimensional data is crucial for decision-making and understanding causal relationships and intervention outcomes in various domains, including healthcare, economics, and social…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-07-31 Jiageng Zhu , Hanchen Xie , Jiazhi Li , Wael Abd-Almageed

Counterfactual explanations describe how to modify a feature vector in order to flip the outcome of a trained classifier. Obtaining robust counterfactual explanations is essential to provide valid algorithmic recourse and meaningful…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-03-22 Alexandre Forel , Axel Parmentier , Thibaut Vidal

This paper clarifies how and why structural demand models (Berry and Haile, 2014, 2024) predict unit-level counterfactual outcomes. We do so by casting structural assumptions equivalently as restrictions on the joint distribution of…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-11-07 Jiafeng Chen

Counterfactual explanations utilize feature perturbations to analyze the outcome of an original decision and recommend an actionable recourse. We argue that it is beneficial to provide several alternative explanations rather than a single…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-01-24 Natraj Raman , Daniele Magazzeni , Sameena Shah

We regularly consider answering counterfactual questions in practice, such as "Would people with diabetes take a turn for the better had they choose another medication?". Observational studies are growing in significance in answering such…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-08-16 Guanglin Zhou , Lina Yao , Xiwei Xu , Chen Wang , Liming Zhu

Counterfactual explanations for machine learning models are used to find minimal interventions to the feature values such that the model changes the prediction to a different output or a target output. A valid counterfactual explanation…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-03-23 Shravan Kumar Sajja , Sumanta Mukherjee , Satyam Dwivedi

We study counterfactual prediction under assignment bias and propose a mathematically grounded, information-theoretic approach that removes treatment-covariate dependence without adversarial training. Starting from a bound that links the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-28 Shiqin Tang , Rong Feng , Shuxin Zhuang , Youzhi Zhang , Hongzong Li

Across domains such as medicine, employment, and criminal justice, predictive models often target labels that imperfectly reflect the outcomes of interest to experts and policymakers. For example, clinical risk assessments deployed to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-05-19 Luke Guerdan , Amanda Coston , Kenneth Holstein , Zhiwei Steven Wu

Predictions under interventions are estimates of what a person's risk of an outcome would be if they were to follow a particular treatment strategy, given their individual characteristics. Such predictions can give important input to…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-06-17 Ruth H. Keogh , Nan van Geloven

Reinforcement learning algorithms are generally designed to maximize the expected return across a population. However, a policy that is optimal on average may be suboptimal for certain individuals, leading to potential safety concerns. To…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-05-26 Jingyi Li , Peng Wu , Chengchun Shi

Counterfactual thinking describes a psychological phenomenon that people re-infer the possible results with different solutions about things that have already happened. It helps people to gain more experience from mistakes and thus to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-08-19 Yue Wang , Yao Wan , Chenwei Zhang , Lixin Cui , Lu Bai , Philip S. Yu

A method for counterfactual explanation of machine learning survival models is proposed. One of the difficulties of solving the counterfactual explanation problem is that the classes of examples are implicitly defined through outcomes of a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-07-01 Maxim S. Kovalev , Lev V. Utkin

Retrospective causal questions ask what would have happened to an observed individual had they received a different treatment. We study the problem of estimating $\mu(x,y)=\mathbb{E}[Y(1)\mid X=x,Y(0)=y]$, the expected counterfactual…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-31 Juraj Bodik

In observational studies, treatment may be adapted to covariates at several times without a fixed protocol, in continuous time. Treatment influences covariates, which influence treatment, which influences covariates, and so on. Then even…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2015-09-02 Judith J. Lok