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We consider the problem of estimating counterfactual quantities when prior knowledge is available in the form of disjunctive statements. These include disjunction of conditions (e.g., "the patient is more than 60 years of age") as well as…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-08-14 Manabu Kuroki

Aligning the decision-making process of machine learning algorithms with that of experienced radiologists is crucial for reliable diagnosis. While existing methods have attempted to align their diagnosis behaviors to those of radiologists…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-02-10 Mingzhou Liu , Ching-Wen Lee , Xinwei Sun , Yu Qiao , Yizhou Wang

Estimating counterfactual outcomes over time has the potential to unlock personalized healthcare by assisting decision-makers to answer ''what-iF'' questions. Existing causal inference approaches typically consider regular, discrete-time…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-06-17 Nabeel Seedat , Fergus Imrie , Alexis Bellot , Zhaozhi Qian , Mihaela van der Schaar

The growing integration of machine learning (ML) and artificial intelligence (AI) models into high-stakes domains such as healthcare and scientific research calls for models that are not only accurate but also interpretable. Among the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-23 Zhuo Cao , Xuan Zhao , Lena Krieger , Hanno Scharr , Ira Assent

Estimating the distribution of outcomes under counterfactual policies is critical for decision-making in domains such as recommendation, advertising, and healthcare. We propose and analyze a novel framework-Counterfactual Policy Mean…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-10-29 Houssam Zenati , Bariscan Bozkurt , Arthur Gretton

As machine learning is increasingly used to inform consequential decision-making (e.g., pre-trial bail and loan approval), it becomes important to explain how the system arrived at its decision, and also suggest actions to achieve a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-10-09 Amir-Hossein Karimi , Bernhard Schölkopf , Isabel Valera

Orthogonal meta-learners, such as DR-learner, R-learner and IF-learner, are increasingly used to estimate conditional average treatment effects. They improve convergence rates relative to na\"{\i}ve meta-learners (e.g., T-, S- and…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-11-17 Stijn Vansteelandt , Paweł Morzywołek

Interpretability research takes counterfactual theories of causality for granted. Most causal methods rely on counterfactual interventions to inputs or the activations of particular model components, followed by observations of the change…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-07-08 Aaron Mueller

Causal structure discovery methods are commonly applied to structured data where the causal variables are known and where statistical testing can be used to assess the causal relationships. By contrast, recovering a causal structure from…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-10-10 Gaël Gendron , Jože M. Rožanec , Michael Witbrock , Gillian Dobbie

Counterfactual explanations are a common approach to providing recourse to data subjects. However, current methodology can produce counterfactuals that cannot be achieved by the subject, making the use of counterfactuals for recourse…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-03-04 Alexander Asemota , Giles Hooker

The use of machine learning systems to support decision making in healthcare raises questions as to what extent these systems may introduce or exacerbate disparities in care for historically underrepresented and mistreated groups, due to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-07-16 Stephen Pfohl , Tony Duan , Daisy Yi Ding , Nigam H. Shah

Causal inference is to estimate the causal effect in a causal relationship when intervention is applied. Precisely, in a causal model with binary interventions, i.e., control and treatment, the causal effect is simply the difference between…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-07-19 Zhenyu Lu , Yurong Cheng , Mingjun Zhong , George Stoian , Ye Yuan , Guoren Wang

Counterfactual inference for continuous rather than binary treatment variables is more common in real-world causal inference tasks. While there are already some sample reweighting methods based on Marginal Structural Model for eliminating…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-07-15 Yonghe Zhao , Qiang Huang , Haolong Zeng , Yun Pen , Huiyan Sun

Methods to find counterfactual explanations have predominantly focused on one step decision making processes. In this work, we initiate the development of methods to find counterfactual explanations for decision making processes in which…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-10-28 Stratis Tsirtsis , Abir De , Manuel Gomez-Rodriguez

We address the challenge of forecasting counterfactual outcomes in a panel data with missing entries and temporally dependent latent factors -- a common scenario in causal inference, where estimating unobserved potential outcomes ahead of…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-02-03 Navonil Deb , Raaz Dwivedi , Sumanta Basu

Estimation of individual treatment effect in observational data is complicated due to the challenges of confounding and selection bias. A useful inferential framework to address this is the counterfactual (potential outcomes) model which…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-01-23 Min Lu , Saad Sadiq , Daniel J. Feaster , Hemant Ishwaran

Reinforcement Learning (RL) has shown great promise in domains like healthcare and robotics but often struggles with adoption due to its lack of interpretability. Counterfactual explanations, which address "what if" scenarios, provide a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-05-20 Shuyang Dong , Shangtong Zhang , Lu Feng

Counterfactuals and counterfactual reasoning underpin numerous techniques for auditing and understanding artificial intelligence (AI) systems. The traditional paradigm for counterfactual reasoning in this literature is the interventional…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2024-01-26 Lucius E. J. Bynum , Joshua R. Loftus , Julia Stoyanovich

Counterfactual explanations are a prominent example of post-hoc interpretability methods in the explainable Artificial Intelligence research domain. They provide individuals with alternative scenarios and a set of recommendations to achieve…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2021-01-20 Andrea Ferrario , Michele Loi

Counterfactual explanations represent the minimal change to a data sample that alters its predicted classification, typically from an unfavorable initial class to a desired target class. Counterfactuals help answer questions such as "what…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-12-03 Brian Barr , Matthew R. Harrington , Samuel Sharpe , C. Bayan Bruss
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