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Counterfactual thinking is a crucial yet challenging topic for artificial intelligence to learn knowledge from data and ultimately improve performance for new scenarios. Many research works, including the Potential Outcome Model (POM) and…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2026-02-24 Mingyu Kang , Duxin Chen , Ziyuan Pu , Jianxi Gao , Wenwu Yu

Most machine learning (ML) models are developed for prediction only; offering no option for causal interpretation of their predictions or parameters/properties. This can hamper the health systems' ability to employ ML models in clinical…

Natural language counterfactual generation aims to minimally modify a given text such that the modified text will be classified into a different class. The generated counterfactuals provide insight into the reasoning behind a model's…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-10-08 Yongjie Wang , Xiaoqi Qiu , Yu Yue , Xu Guo , Zhiwei Zeng , Yuhong Feng , Zhiqi Shen

A complete understanding of heterogeneous treatment effects involves characterizing the full conditional distribution of potential outcomes. To this end, we propose the Conditional Counterfactual Mean Embeddings (CCME), a framework that…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-02-05 Thatchanon Anancharoenkij , Donlapark Ponnoprat

Counterfactual explanations are attracting significant attention due to the flourishing applications of machine learning models in consequential domains. A counterfactual plan consists of multiple possibilities to modify a given instance so…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-04-12 Ngoc Bui , Duy Nguyen , Viet Anh Nguyen

Heterogeneity in medical data, e.g., from data collected at different sites and with different protocols in a clinical study, is a fundamental hurdle for accurate prediction using machine learning models, as such models often fail to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-07-13 Rongguang Wang , Pratik Chaudhari , Christos Davatzikos

Machine learning can impact people with legal or ethical consequences when it is used to automate decisions in areas such as insurance, lending, hiring, and predictive policing. In many of these scenarios, previous decisions have been made…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-03-09 Matt J. Kusner , Joshua R. Loftus , Chris Russell , Ricardo Silva

Counterfactual explanations provide individuals with cost-optimal recommendations to achieve their desired outcomes. However, when a significant number of individuals seek similar state modifications, this individual-centric approach can…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-01 Ahmad-Reza Ehyaei , Ali Shirali , Samira Samadi

Counterfactual prediction is about predicting outcome of the unobserved situation from the data. For example, given patient is on drug A, what would be the outcome if she switch to drug B. Most of existing works focus on modeling…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-10-29 Yanbo Xu , Cao Xiao , Jimeng Sun

Can stated preferences help in counterfactual analyses of actual choice? This research proposes a novel approach to researchers who have access to both stated choices in hypothetical scenarios and actual choices. The key idea is to use…

Econometrics · Economics 2023-07-27 Romuald Meango

This paper considers (partial) identification of a variety of counterfactual parameters in binary response models with possibly endogenous regressors. Our framework allows for nonseparable index functions with multi-dimensional latent…

Econometrics · Economics 2022-07-26 Jiaying Gu , Thomas M. Russell

Counterfactual Learning to Rank (LTR) methods optimize ranking systems using logged user interactions that contain interaction biases. Existing methods are only unbiased if users are presented with all relevant items in every ranking. There…

Information Retrieval · Computer Science 2021-04-12 Harrie Oosterhuis , Maarten de Rijke

Contrastive learning is an approach to representation learning that utilizes naturally occurring similar and dissimilar pairs of data points to find useful embeddings of data. In the context of document classification under topic modeling…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-03-05 Christopher Tosh , Akshay Krishnamurthy , Daniel Hsu

In causal inference, the joint law of a set of counterfactual random variables is generally not identified. We show that a conservative version of the joint law - corresponding to the smallest treatment effect - is identified. Finding this…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-10-20 Sivaraman Balakrishnan , Edward Kennedy , Larry Wasserman

Visual counterfactual explanations are ideal hypothetical images that change the decision-making of the classifier with high confidence toward the desired class while remaining visually plausible and close to the initial image. In this…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2025-04-15 Tung Luu , Nam Le , Duc Le , Bac Le

This paper investigates the problem of bounding possible output from a counterfactual query given a set of observational data. While various works of literature have described methodologies to generate efficient algorithms that provide an…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-09-02 Aditya Kelvianto Sidharta

When applied in healthcare, reinforcement learning (RL) seeks to dynamically match the right interventions to subjects to maximize population benefit. However, the learned policy may disproportionately allocate efficacious actions to one…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-01-15 Jitao Wang , Chengchun Shi , John D. Piette , Joshua R. Loftus , Donglin Zeng , Zhenke Wu

One fundamental statistical question for research areas such as precision medicine and health disparity is about discovering effect modification of treatment or exposure by observed covariates. We propose a semiparametric framework for…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-08-04 Muxuan Liang , Menggang Yu

Rank-based inference methods are applied in various disciplines, typically when procedures relying on standard normal theory are not justifiable, for example when data are not symmetrically distributed, contain outliers, or responses are…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-02-16 Edgar Brunner , Frank Konietschke , Arne C. Bathke , Markus Pauly

Standard measures of effect, including the risk ratio, the odds ratio, and the risk difference, are associated with a number of well-described shortcomings, and no consensus exists about the conditions under which investigators should…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-10-08 Anders Huitfeldt , Andrew Goldstein , Sonja A. Swanson