Related papers: A Note on Exact State Visit Probabilities in Two-S…
In this paper, we present a novel iterative Monte Carlo method for approximating the stationary probability of a single state of a positive recurrent Markov chain. We utilize the characterization that the stationary probability of a state…
We study the accurate and efficient computation of the expected number of times each state is visited in discrete- and continuous-time Markov chains. To obtain sound accuracy guarantees efficiently, we lift interval iteration and…
In a Markov chain started at a state $x$, the hitting time $\tau(y)$ is the first time that the chain reaches another state $y$. We study the probability $\mathbf{P}_x(\tau(y) = t)$ that the first visit to $y$ occurs precisely at a given…
The cover time of a Markov chain on a finite state space is the expected time until all states are visited. We show that if the cover time of a discrete-time Markov chain with rational transitions probabilities is bounded, then it is a…
We develop a new bidirectional algorithm for estimating Markov chain multi-step transition probabilities: given a Markov chain, we want to estimate the probability of hitting a given target state in $\ell$ steps after starting from a given…
We study random walk on complex networks with transition probabilities which depend on the current and previously visited nodes. By using an absorbing Markov chain we derive an exact expression for the mean first passage time between pairs…
We describe an exact approach for calculating transition probabilities and waiting times in finite-state discrete-time Markov processes. All the states and the rules for transitions between them must be known in advance. We can then…
We present a closed-form, computable expression for the expected number of times any transition event occurs during the transient phase of a reducible Markov chain. Examples of events include time to absorption, number of visits to a state,…
Markov switching models are a popular family of models that introduces time-variation in the parameters in the form of their state- or regime-specific values. Importantly, this time-variation is governed by a discrete-valued latent…
This paper considers a class of non-Markovian discrete-time random processes on a finite state space {1,...,d}. The transition probabilities at each time are influenced by the number of times each state has been visited and by a fixed a…
In a recent paper, Shah [arXiv:2502.03073] derived an explicit expression for the distribution of occupancy times for a two-state Markov chain, using a method based on enumerating sample paths. We consider here the more general problem of…
An analytical formula for the occurence probability of Markovian stochastic paths with repeatedly visited and/or equal departure rates is derived. This formula is essential for an efficient investigation of the trajectories belonging to…
In this paper, two-state Markov switching models are proposed to study accident frequencies. These models assume that there are two unobserved states of roadway safety, and that roadway entities (roadway segments) can switch between these…
We study the computation of lower and upper probabilities of hitting a target set of states for imprecise Markov chains, where transition uncertainty is modelled by a convex set of transition matrices. In the precise case, hitting…
We develop a framework to determine the complete statistical behavior of a fundamental quantity in the theory of random walks, namely, the probability that $n_1$, $n_2$, $n_3$, . . . distinct sites are visited at times $t_1$, $t_2$, $t_3$,…
A general criterion is given for when a Markov chain trapped with probability p(x) in state x will be almost surely trapped. The quenched (state x is a trap forever with probability p(x)) and annealed (state x traps with probability p(x) on…
Thermalization is one of the most important phenomena in statistical physics. Often, the transition probabilities between different states in the phase space is or can be approximated by constants. In this case, the system can be described…
We identify a nontrivial multistate Landau-Zener model for which transition probabilities between any pair of diabatic states can be determined analytically and exactly. In the semiclassical picture, this model features the possibility of…
For a finite state Markov process and a finite collection $\{ \Gamma_k, k \in K \}$ of subsets of its state space, let $\tau_k$ be the first time the process visits the set $\Gamma_k$. We derive explicit/recursive formulas for the joint…
In this paper, we provide a methodology for computing the probability distribution of sojourn times for a wide class of Markov chains. Our methodology consists in writing out linear systems and matrix equations for generating functions…