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The impact of the El Ni\~no-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on the extratropics is investigated in an idealized, reduced-order model that has a tropical and an extratropical module. Unidirectional ENSO forcing is used to mimick the atmospheric…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2021-07-07 Stéphane Vannitsem , Jonathan Demaeyer , Michael Ghil

The major challenge we face today in the energy sector is to meet the growing demand for electricity with less impact on the environment. South America is an important player in the renewable energy resource. Brazil accelerated the growth…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2020-07-31 Thiago B. Murari , Aloisio S. Nascimento Filho , Marcelo A. Moret , Sergio Pitombo , Alex A. B. Santos

We construct a network from climate records of atmospheric temperature at surface level, at different geographical sites in the globe, using reanalysis data from years 1948-2010. We find that the network correlates with the North Atlantic…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2015-06-17 Oded Guez , Avi Gozolchiani , Yehiel Berezin , Yang Wang , Shlomo Havlin

The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index, a measure of sea-level atmospheric pressure variability, holds significant influence over weather patterns in North America and Northern Europe. A negative (positive) NAO value signifies increased…

Applications · Statistics 2024-12-12 Alka Yadav , Sourish Das , Anirban Chakraborti , Sudeep Shukla

This article analyzes SST remote forcing on the interannual variability of Sahel summer (June-September) moderate (below 75th percentile) and heavy (above 75th percentile) daily precipitation events during the period 1981-2016. Evidence is…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2024-01-29 Moussa Diakhaté , Belén Rodríguez-Fonseca , Iñigo Gómara , Elsa Mohino , Abdou Lahat Dieng , Amadou Thierno Gaye

Global climate warming poses a significant challenge to humanity; it is associated with, e.g., rising sea level and declining Arctic sea ice. Increasing extreme events are also considered to be a result of climate…

Physics and Society · Physics 2019-01-23 Jingfang Fan , Jun Meng , Yosef Ashkenazy , Shlomo Havlin , Hans Joachim Schellnhuber

The importance of the sea ice retreat in the polar regions for the global warming and the role of ice-albedo feedback was recognized by various authors [1,2]. Similar to a recent study of the phenomenon in the Arctic [3] we present a…

Geophysics · Physics 2018-07-18 Alfred Laubereau , Hristo Iglev

We study the three-timescale dynamics of a model that describes the El Ni\~no Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon, which was proposed in [A. Roberts, J. Guckenheimer, E. Widiasih, A. Timmermann, and C. K. Jones, Mixed-mode oscillations…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2022-07-08 Panagiotis Kaklamanos , Nikola Popović

The recharge oscillator (RO) model has been successfully used to understand different aspects of the El Ni\~no-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Fitting the RO to observations and climate model simulations consistently suggests that ENSO is a…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2025-04-09 Elle Weeks , Eli Tziperman

Westerly wind bursts (WWBs) have long been known to have a major impact on the development of El Ni\~no events. In particular, they amplify these events, with stronger events associated with a higher number of WWBs. We further find…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2025-12-30 Georg A. Gottwald , Eli Tziperman , Alexey Fedorov

The predictability of extreme winter regimes in the regions of Northern Eurasia depending on El Ni\~no phenomena is assessed using data from long-term meteorological observations. The frequency of extremely warm and extremely cold winters…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2023-12-29 I. I. Mokhov

Rainy years and dry years in SE Australia are known to be correlated with sea surface temperatures in the specific areas of the Indian Ocean. While over the past 100 years the correlation had been both positive and negative, it…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2022-08-01 Stjepan Marcelja

The integration of renewable energy sources into power systems is expected to increase significantly in the coming decades. This can result in critical situations related to the strong variability in space and time of weather patterns.…

Dominant modes of SST in the west and east Pacific show strong but regionally different gradients caused by waves, internal dynamics, and anthropogenic warming, which drives air-sea interaction in the Pacific. The study discusses the…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2024-07-08 Lekshmi S , Rajib Chattopadhyay , D. S. Pai , M. Rajeevan , Vinu Valsala , K. S. Hosalikar , M. Mohapatra

Faithful uncertainty quantification (UQ) is paramount in high stakes climate prediction. Deep ensembles, or ensembles of probabilistic neural networks, are state of the art for UQ in machine learning (ML) and are growing increasingly…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2026-03-24 Devin M. McAfee , Elizabeth A. Barnes

A method is provided for designing and training noise-driven recurrent neural networks as models of stochastic processes. The method unifies and generalizes two known separate modeling approaches, Echo State Networks (ESN) and Linear…

Adaptation and Self-Organizing Systems · Physics 2014-04-14 Mathieu N. Galtier , Camille Marini , Gilles Wainrib , Herbert Jaeger

The solar activity provides an important impact not only on the intensity of cosmic rays but also on the earth environment. In this paper, a coupled oscillator model is proposed to explain the solar activity. By this model the 89 year…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2018-06-26 Yasushi Muraki

Accurate prediction of global sea surface temperature at sub-seasonal to seasonal (S2S) timescale is critical for drought and flood forecasting, as well as for improving disaster preparedness in human society. Government departments or…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2024-09-10 Longhao Wang , Xuanze Zhang , L. Ruby Leung , Francis H. S. Chiew , Amir AghaKouchak , Kairan Ying , Yongqiang Zhang

The diversity of El Ni\~no events is commonly described by two distinct flavors, the Eastern Pacific (EP) and Central Pacific (CP) types. While the remote impacts, i.e. teleconnections, of EP and CP events have been studied for different…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2023-04-12 Felix M. Strnad , Jakob Schlör , Christian Fröhlich , Bedartha Goswami

The 2022 National Defense Strategy of the United States listed climate change as a serious threat to national security. Climate intervention methods, such as stratospheric aerosol injection, have been proposed as mitigation strategies, but…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-10-13 Katherine Goode , Daniel Ries , Kellie McClernon