Related papers: Climate network and complexity approach predict ne…
We construct a network from climate records of different geographical sites in the North Atlantic. A link between two sites represents the cross-correlations between the records of each site. We find that within the different phases of the…
We propose a new statistical reduced complexity climate model. The centerpiece of the model consists of a set of physical equations for the global climate system which we show how to cast in non-linear state space form. The parameters in…
A nonanticipative analog method is used for the long-term forecast of air temperature extremes. The data to be used for prediction include average daily air temperature, mean visibility, mean wind speed, mean dew point, maximum and minimum…
We formulate seasonal rainfall prediction as a reduced-order nonlinear forecasting problem, embedding coupled Indian-Pacific Ocean variability into a low-dimensional state space and projecting it forward using deep neural networks.…
The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) is used to indicate the meteorological drought situation - a negative (or positive) value of SPI would imply a dry (or wet) condition in a region over a period. The climate system is an excellent…
Renewable energy sources play a major role in future net-zero energy systems. However, achieving energy system resilience remains challenging, since renewables depend on weather fluctuations, and future energy systems are subject to major…
Current techniques for predicting climate change are mainly based on "massive" deterministic numerical modeling. However, the ocean-atmosphere system is a so-called "complex system", made up of a large number of interacting elements. We…
We present a new approach to modeling the future development of extreme temperatures globally and on a long time-scale by using non-stationary generalized extreme value distributions in combination with logistic functions. This approach is…
The provision of accurate methods for predicting the climate response to anthropogenic and natural forcings is a key contemporary scientific challenge. Using a simplified and efficient open-source general circulation model of the atmosphere…
The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) obtained using instrumental and documentary proxy predictors from Eurasia is found to be characterized by a quasi 60-year dominant oscillation since 1650. This pattern emerges clearly once the NAO record…
Skillful seasonal prediction of lightning is crucial over several global hotspot regions, as it causes severe damages to infrastructures and losses of human life. While major emphasis has been given for predicting rainfall, prediction of…
Climate system teleconnections are crucial for improving climate predictability, but difficult to quantify. Standard approaches to identify teleconnections are often based on correlations between time series. Here we present a novel method…
The relation between El Ni\~{n}o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) perplexes the researchers. Probably, this is due to the default choice on empirical orthogonal function (EOF) method whose outputs are merely…
We explore the anomalous behavior of the equatorial quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) in zonal wind which it exhibited, since February 2016. In more detail, QBO interrupted its regular pattern and the eastward stratospheric winds…
Prediction of climate tipping is challenging due to the lack of recent observation of actual climate tipping. Despite many previous efforts to accurately predict the existence and timing of climate tippings under specific climate scenarios,…
The remarkable flexibility and adaptability of both deep learning models and ensemble methods have led to the proliferation for their application in understanding many physical phenomena. Traditionally, these two techniques have largely…
The long-term temperature response to a given change in CO2 forcing, or Earth-system sensitivity (ESS), is a key parameter quantifying our understanding about the relationship between changes in Earth's radiative forcing and the resulting…
The dynamic activity of the Sun, governed by its cycle of sunspots -- strongly magnetized regions that are observed on its surface -- modulate our solar system space environment creating space weather. Severe space weather leads to…
Precise and reliable estimation of reference evapotranspiration (ET o ) is an essential for the irrigation and water resources management. ET o is difficult to predict due to its complex processes. This complexity can be solved using…
Temporary changes in precipitation may lead to sustained and severe drought or massive floods in different parts of the world. Knowing variation in precipitation can effectively help the water resources decision-makers in water resources…