Related papers: Climate network and complexity approach predict ne…
Considering the interdependencies between water and electricity use is critical for ensuring conservation measures are successful in lowering the net water and electricity use in a city. This water-electricity demand nexus will become even…
The identification of precursors of climatic phenomena has enormous practical importance. Recent work constructs a climate network based on surface air temperature data to analyze the El Ni\~no phenomena. We utilize microtransitions which…
Oceanic Kelvin and Rossby waves play an important role in tropical climate and \en dynamics. Here we develop and apply a climate network approach to quantify the characteristics of \en related oceanic waves, based on sea surface height…
In this article, we present a mathematical theory of the Walker circulation of the large-scale atmosphere over the tropics. This study leads to a new metastable state oscillation theory for the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a typical…
The 2014-2015 "Monster"/"Super" El Ni\~no failed to be predicted one year earlier due to the growing importance of a new type of El Ni\~no, El Ni\~no Modoki, which reportedly has much lower forecast skill with the classical models. In this…
Spatiotemporal variations in thunderstorm occurrence frequency are considered here using an environmental dataset derived from ERA5 reanalysis data. Interannual variability in the thunderstorm environments is examined for the period…
We consider a delay differential equation (DDE) model for El-Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability. The model combines two key mechanisms that participate in ENSO dynamics: delayed negative feedback and seasonal forcing. We perform…
In recent years, the application of machine learning approaches to time-series forecasting of climate dynamical phenomena has become increasingly active. It is known that applying a band-pass filter to a time-series data is a key to…
Though the Boltzmann-Gibbs framework of equilibrium statistical mechanics has been successful in many arenas, it is clearly inadequate for describing many interesting natural phenomena driven far from equilibrium. The simplest step towards…
Extreme rainfall in the Indian summer monsoon can be destructive and deadly. Although El Ni\~no/ events in the equatorial Pacific make dry days and whole summers more likely throughout India, their influence on daily extremes is not well…
The complex network framework has been successfully applied to the analysis of climatological data, providing, for example, a better understanding of the mechanisms underlying reduced predictability during El Ni\~no or La Ni\~na years.…
Complex networks have been used intensively to investigate the flow and dynamics of many natural systems including the climate system. Here, we develop a percolation based measure, the order parameter, to study and quantify climate…
Annual North Atlantic tropical cyclone (TC) counts are frequently modeled as a Poisson process with a state-dependent rate. We provide a lower bound on the forecasting error of this class of models. Remarkably we find that this bound is…
We study the forced response of the teleconnection between the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and global precipitation in general and the Indian summer monsoon (IM) in particular in the Max Planck Institute Grand Ensemble. The forced…
The Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is modelled with the help of a simple model representing a classical damped oscillator forced by external forcing. Eastern Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) and the mean equatorial Pacific thermocline…
In this article, we review the interdisciplinary techniques (borrowed from physics, mathematics, statistics, machine-learning, etc.) and methodological framework that we have used to understand climate systems, which serve as examples of…
Seasonal climate forecasts are socioeconomically important for managing the impacts of extreme weather events and for planning in sectors like agriculture and energy. Climate predictability on seasonal timescales is tied to boundary effects…
This research quantitatively and qualitatively analyzes the factors responsible for the water level variations in Lake Toba, North Sumatra Province, Indonesia. According to several studies carried out from 1993 to 2020, changes in the water…
The Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) has a decisive influence on India's agricultural output and economy. Extreme deviations from the normal seasonal amount of rainfall can cause severe droughts or floods, affecting Indian food…
Precipitation is one of the most important meteorological variables for defining the climate dynamics, but the spatial patterns of precipitation have not been fully investigated yet. The complex network theory, which provides a robust tool…